A method for estimating the socioeconomic impact of Earth observations in wildland fire suppression decisions

Abstract

A method for estimating the socioeconomic impact of Earth observations is proposed and deployed. The core of the method is the analysis of outcomes of hypothetical fire suppression scenarios generated using a coupled atmosphere–fire behaviour model, based on decisions made by an experienced wildfire incident management team with and without the benefits of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite observations and the WRF-SFIRE wildfire behaviour simulation system. The scenarios were based on New Mexico’s 2011 Las Conchas fire. For each scenario, fire break line location decisions served as inputs to the model, generating fire progression outcomes. Fire model output was integrated with a property database containing thousands of coordinates and property values and other asset values to estimate the total losses associated with each scenario. An attempt to estimate the socioeconomic impact of satellite and modelling data used during the decision-making process was made. We analysed the impact of Earth observations and include considerations for estimating other socioeconomic impacts.

Analysis of methods for assimilating fire perimeters into a coupled fire-atmosphere model

“…Consequently, the fire is gradually ignited only in the regions of actively propagating fire, indicated by the gradual fill color in Figure 5B, following the reconstructed fire progression shown in Figure 5C, whereas the instantaneous ignition ignites fire everywhere around the entire perimeter whether there is known fire activity there or not as shown in Figure 5A. The method introduced here builds upon a more straightforward approach employed by Herr et al (2020). Herr et al (2020) utilized fire replay, similar to our approach, but without the incorporation of selective ignition through masking.…”

“…The method introduced here builds upon a more straightforward approach employed by Herr et al (2020). Herr et al (2020) utilized fire replay, similar to our approach, but without the incorporation of selective ignition through masking. In their study, the fire was ignited uniformly across the entire second perimeter.…”

A cost-benefit analysis of WildFireSat, a wildfire monitoring satellite mission for Canada

“…Christensen [ 26 ] quantified the economic benefit of using drones to surveille wildfires via expert elicitation, and determined that suppression cost savings were possible, depending on assumptions about the use of the resulting data. Regardless of analysis methodology or timing, wildfire-related remote sensing data have been found to generate positive impacts, improve management outcomes, and decrease fire-related costs [ 27 ].…”