A metapopulation model for sylvatic &lt;em&gt; T. cruzi&lt;/em&gt; transmission with vector migration

Crawford, Britnee A.; Kribs-Zaleta, Christopher M.

doi:10.3934/mbe.2014.11.471

Cited by 20 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…The result of the previous lemma is well known in the literature [8], and is shown for completeness of this work. However, some other results can be obtained.…”

Section: Lemmamentioning

confidence: 80%

On the Calculation of $$R_0$$ R 0 Using Submodels

Olmos

Barradas

Baca-Carrasco

2015

Differ Equ Dyn Syst

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A set of epidemiological models and their basic reproductive numbers are presented. For some models, the expression of the basic reproductive number can be very complex to determine. In this work, we present some techniques to find the expressions of these basic reproductive numbers starting from submodels of the original one. Some particular models with their respective R 0 , which can be applied to the study of some important diseases, are also presented.

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“…The result of the previous lemma is well known in the literature [8], and is shown for completeness of this work. However, some other results can be obtained.…”

Section: Lemmamentioning

confidence: 80%

On the Calculation of $$R_0$$ R 0 Using Submodels

Olmos

Barradas

Baca-Carrasco

2015

Differ Equ Dyn Syst

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“…cruzi transmission and control that only include the domestic setting. [ 7 , 9 , 11 ], are at the household level (i.e., one house or small population)[ 7 , 11 , 17 , 58 ], include only one form of transmission[ 9 , 11 , 14 , 58 ], or evaluate complex biological interactions and transmissions to evaluate non-policy related issues[ 6 , 8 , 14 , 59 , 60 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are the London Declaration’s 2020 goals sufficient to control Chagas disease?: Modeling scenarios for the Yucatan Peninsula

et al. 2018

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BackgroundThe 2020 Sustainable Development goals call for 100% certified interruption or control of the three main forms of Chagas disease transmission in Latin America. However, how much will achieving these goals to varying degrees control Chagas disease; what is the potential impact of missing these goals and if they are achieved, what may be left?MethodsWe developed a compartmental simulation model that represents the triatomine, human host, and non-human host populations and vector-borne, congenital, and transfusional T. cruzi transmission between them in the domestic and peridomestic settings to evaluate the impact of limiting transmission in a 2,000 person virtual village in Yucatan, Mexico.ResultsInterruption of domestic vectorial transmission had the largest impact on T. cruzi transmission and prevalence in all populations. Most of the gains were achieved within the first few years. Controlling vectorial transmission resulted in a 46.1–83.0% relative reduction in the number of new acute Chagas cases for a 50–100% interruption in domestic vector-host contact. Only controlling congenital transmission led to a 2.4–8.1% (30–100% interruption) relative reduction in the total number of new acute cases and reducing only transfusional transmission led to a 0.1–0.3% (30–100% reduction). Stopping all three forms of transmission resulted in 0.5 total transmission events over five years (compared to 5.0 with no interruption); interrupting all forms by 30% resulted in 3.4 events over five years per 2,000 persons.ConclusionsWhile reducing domestic vectorial, congenital, and transfusional transmission can successfully reduce transmission to humans (up to 82% in one year), achieving the 2020 goals would still result in 0.5 new acute cases per 2,000 over five years. Even if the goals are missed, major gains can be achieved within the first few years. Interrupting transmission should be combined with other efforts such as a vaccine or improved access to care, especially for the population of already infected individuals.

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“…Host-switching models with distinct vector populations for each host are effectively metapopulation models, and have the more complex reproductive number structure seen in such networks (e.g. [10]), involving a term representing the bidirectional vector migration. As seen in this study, the latter term's importance varies directly with the migration rates, and can actually dominate the reproductive measures at high enough frequencies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…mosquitoes and West Nile Virus [11,47]). Structures corresponding to host switching are seen more commonly in metapopulation models, with vector dispersal analogous to host switching, for example, [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Host switching vs. host sharing in overlapping sylvaticTrypanosoma cruzitransmission cycles

Kribs

Mitchell

2015

Journal of Biological Dynamics

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The principle of competitive exclusion is well established for multiple populations competing for the same resource, and simple models for multistrain infection exhibit it as well when cross-immunity precludes coinfections. However, multiple hosts provide niches for different pathogens to occupy simultaneously. This is the case for the vector-borne parasite Trypanosoma cruzi in overlapping sylvatic transmission cycles in the Americas, where it is enzootic. This study uses cycles in the USA involving two different hosts but the same vector species as a context for the study of the mechanisms behind the communication between the two cycles. Vectors dispersing in search of new hosts may be considered to move between the two cycles (host switching) or, more simply, to divide their time between the two host types (host sharing). Analysis considers host switching as an intermediate case between isolated cycles and intermingled cycles (host sharing) in order to examine the role played by the host-switching rate in permitting coexistence of multiple strains in a single-host population. Results show that although the population dynamics (demographic equilibria) in host-switching models align well with those in the limiting models (host sharing or isolated cycles), infection dynamics differ significantly, in ways that sometimes illuminate the underlying epidemiology (such as differing host susceptibilities to infection) and sometimes reveal model limitations (such as host switching dominating the infection dynamics). Numerical work suggests that the model explains the trace presence of TcI in raccoons but not the more significant co-persistence observed in woodrats. ARTICLE HISTORY

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A metapopulation model for sylvatic <em> T. cruzi</em> transmission with vector migration

Cited by 20 publications

References 55 publications

On the Calculation of $$R_0$$ R 0 Using Submodels

On the Calculation of $$R_0$$ R 0 Using Submodels

Are the London Declaration’s 2020 goals sufficient to control Chagas disease?: Modeling scenarios for the Yucatan Peninsula

Host switching vs. host sharing in overlapping sylvaticTrypanosoma cruzitransmission cycles

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