A meta-analysis of Early Results to predict Vaccine efficacy against Omicron

Khoury, David S.; Steain, Megan; Triccas, James A.; Sigal, Alex; Davenport, Miles P.; Cromer, Deborah

doi:10.1101/2021.12.13.21267748

Cited by 60 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 7 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…For these vaccine regimens, we estimate that the boosting with PF (used in both regimens) increases NATs by 1.5-fold (95% credible interval, CrI 1.4–1.8) compared to NATs following dose 2 of PF and 3.0-fold (95% CrI 2.5– 3.9) compared to NATs following dose 2 of AZ, resulting in similar NATs following the boost regardless of the primary course. We estimate a 3.9-fold (95% CrI 2.9–5.5) reduction in NATs against the Omicron variant compared to the Delta variant (20) which translates to approximately a 10–23-fold drop in NAT compared to WT, consistent with a meta-analysis of NAT studies 26 . This drop in NATs matches the observed drop in vaccine efficacy against mild disease.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 80%

The value of vaccine booster doses to mitigate the global impact of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant

Hogan

Doohan

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Vaccines have played a central role in mitigating severe disease and death from COVID-19 in the past 12 months. However, efficacy wanes over time and this loss of protection is being compounded by the emergence of the Omicron variant. By fitting an immunological model to population-level vaccine effectiveness data, we estimate that neutralizing antibody titres for Omicron are reduced by 3.9 fold (95% CrI 2.9 to 5.5) compared to the Delta variant. Under this model, we predict that 90 days after boosting with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, efficacy against severe disease (admission to hospital) declines to 95.9% (95% CrI 95.4% to 96.3%) against the Delta variant and 78.8% (95% CrI 75.0% to 85.1%) against the Omicron variant. Integrating this immunological model within a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we demonstrate that the size of the Omicron wave will depend on the degree of past exposure to infection across the population, with relatively small Omicron waves in countries that previously experienced a large Delta wave. We show that booster doses can have a major impact in mitigating the epidemic peak, although in many settings it remains possible that healthcare capacity could still be challenged. This is particularly the case in zero-COVID countries where there is little prior infection-induced immunity and therefore epidemic peaks will be higher. Where dose supply is limited, targeting boosters to the highest risk groups to ensure continued high protection in the face of waning immunity is of greater benefit than giving these doses as primary vaccination to younger age-groups. In many settings it is likely that health systems will be stretched, and it may therefore be necessary to maintain and/or reintroduce some level of NPIs to mitigate the worst impacts of the Omicron variant as it replaces the Delta variant.

show abstract

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 80%

The value of vaccine booster doses to mitigate the global impact of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant

Hogan

Doohan

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Previous in vitro studies already showed the association of some of these mutations with increased infectivity, ACE2 interaction (N501Y, P681H) (Gong et al, 2021;Saito et al, 2021), or immune evasion (K417N, N440K, G446S, S477N, E484A/K, Q493R) (Baum et al, 2020;Clark et al, 2021;Greaney et al, 2021aGreaney et al, , 2021bGreaney et al, , 2021cLiu et al, 2020;Rappazzo et al, 2021;Starr et al, 2021;Weisblum et al, 2020). This unprecedented accumulation of Spike mutations raised concern about a major antigenic drift that could significantly decrease the efficacy of current vaccines (Andrews et al, 2021;Khoury et al, 2021;Schmidt et al, 2021b).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Spike recognition by plasma from individuals receiving BNT162b2 mRNA vaccination with a 16-week interval between doses

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Continuous emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) is fueling the COVID-19 pandemic. Omicron (B.1.1.529) rapidly spread worldwide. The large number of mutations in its Spike raise concerns about a major antigenic drift that could significantly decrease vaccine efficacy and infection-induced immunity. A long interval between BNT162b2 mRNA doses elicit antibodies that efficiently recognize Spikes from different VOCs. Here we evaluate the recognition of Omicron Spike by plasma from a cohort of SARS-CoV-2 naïve and previously infected individuals that received their BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine 16-weeks apart. Omicron Spike is recognized less efficiently than D614G, Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta Spikes. We compare to plasma activity from participants receiving a short (4-weeks) interval regimen. Plasma from individuals of the long interval cohort recognize and neutralize better the Omicron Spike compared to those that received a short interval. Whether this difference confers any clinical benefit against Omicron remains unknown.

show abstract

“…Using an analysis that synthesizes recent neutralization results with prior experiments to correlate vaccine efficacy against infection (35,36), we can infer the relative reduction in protection due to BA.1 versus Delta, which we presume is the primary circulating variant in the background transmission.…”

Section: Estimating the Plausible Range For Immune Escapementioning

confidence: 99%

Bounding the levels of transmissibility & immune evasion of the Omicron variant in South Africa

Pearson

Silal

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A new SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern, Omicron (B.1.1.529), has been identified based on genomic sequencing and epidemiological data in South Africa. Presumptive Omicron cases in South Africa have grown extremely rapidly, despite high prior exposure and moderate vaccination coverage. The available evidence suggests that Omicron spread is at least in part due to evasion of this immune protection, though it may also exhibit higher intrinsic transmissibility. Using detailed laboratory and epidemiological data from South Africa, we estimate the constraints on these two characteristics of the new variant and their relationship. Our estimates and associated uncertainties provide essential information to inform projection and scenario modeling analyses, which are crucial planning tools for governments around the world.

show abstract

A meta-analysis of Early Results to predict Vaccine efficacy against Omicron

Cited by 60 publications

References 7 publications

The value of vaccine booster doses to mitigate the global impact of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant

The value of vaccine booster doses to mitigate the global impact of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Spike recognition by plasma from individuals receiving BNT162b2 mRNA vaccination with a 16-week interval between doses

Bounding the levels of transmissibility & immune evasion of the Omicron variant in South Africa

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About