A Mechanistic Model of Annual Sulfate Concentrations in the United States

Abstract

We develop a mechanistic model to analyze the impact of sulfur dioxide emissions from coalfired power plants on average sulfate concentrations in the central United States. A multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process is used to approximate the dynamics of the underlying spacetime chemical transport process, and its distributional properties are leveraged to specify novel probability models for spatial data (i.e., spatially-referenced data with no temporal replication) that are viewed as either a snapshot or a time-averaged observation of the OU process. Air pollution transport dynamics determine the mean and covariance structure of our atmospheric sulfate model, allowing us to infer which process dynamics are driving observed air pollution concentrations. We use these inferred dynamics to assess the regulatory impact of flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) technologies on human exposure to sulfate aerosols.