A mechanism of interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

Matsuura, Takeshi; Yumoto, M.; Iizuka, Satoshi

doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0327-3

Cited by 128 publications

(95 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Wu et al [2005] also found westerly flow anomalies to the south of 25 N when the period 1965-1983was compared to 1984-2003. Tu et al [2009 likewise showed an eastward retreat of the WNP subtropical high since 2000, implying a weakened easterly steering flow although they did not present changes in steering currents.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…For example, Webster et al [2005] noted a large increase in the frequency for the strongest TC categories (4 and 5) in the western Pacific over the last three decades. However, this large trend has been challenged by the interdecadal variations of typhoon activity [Matsuura et al, 2003;Liu and Chan, 2008] or possible measurement errors in the dataset [Landsea, 2005;Klotzbach, 2006]. Future projections based on high-resolution models and theory suggest that global warming would lead to stronger storms and a decrease in the frequency of TCs [e.g., Knutson et al, 2010;Murakami et al, 2011].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Have steering flows in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea changed over the last 50 years?

Chu

Kim

Chen

2012

Geophysical Research Letters

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[1] Long-term trends in steering flows over the western North Pacific (WNP) and the South China Sea (SCS) are examined during the peak typhoon season. A nonparametric and robust trend detection method is employed. Both the NCEP and ERA reanalysis data sets suggest a statistically significant decreasing trend in steering flows in the subtropical region of the western WNP (between 120 E or near Taiwan and 145 E) and the northern SCS during 1958-2001. Over this period, the decrease in the WNP is quite large with a magnitude of 1.1 m s À1 given that the background mean steering flow is only 3.26 m s À1 . This decrease corresponds approximately to one third of the mean flow. When the data are extended from 1958 to 2009 the long-term decrease in steering flows in the aforementioned subtropical region are still significant, although more modest at a rate of 0.7 m s À1 . Time series of translational speeds averaged over the same subtropical region also exhibit a slow-down of storms' motion over the last 52 years. This is consistent with the weakening of easterly steering flows analyzed from independent data sets. Results of this study imply a longer life span for tropical cyclones and a greater tendency for storms along prevailing typhoon tracks to recurve.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Have steering flows in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea changed over the last 50 years?

Chu

Kim

Chen

2012

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…One method is to analyze large-scale variables known to affect TC activity (Ryan et al 1992; Thorncroft and Pytharoulis 2001;Camargo et al 2007c). Another approach, and the one used here, is to detect and track the cyclonelike structures in climate models (Manabe et al 1970;Broccoli and Manabe 1990;Wu and Lau 1992), coupled ocean-atmosphere models (Matsuura et al 2003;Vitart and Stockdale 2001), and regional climate models (Landman et al 2005;Knutson et al 2007). These methods have also been used in studies of possible changes in TC intensity due to global climate change using AGCMs (Bengtsson et al 1996;Royer et al 1998;Bengtsson et al 2007a,b) and regional climate models (Walsh and Ryan 2000;Walsh et al 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Experimental Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity at IRI

Camargo¹,

Barnston²

2009

Weather and Forecasting

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The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) has been issuing experimental seasonal tropical cyclone activity forecasts for several ocean basins since early 2003. In this paper the method used to obtain these forecasts is described and the forecast performance is evaluated. The forecasts are based on tropical cyclone-like features detected and tracked in a low-resolution climate model, namely ECHAM4.5. The simulation skill of the model using historical observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over several decades, as well as with SST anomalies persisted from the previous month's observations, is discussed. These simulation skills are compared with skills of purely statistically based hindcasts using as predictors recently observed SSTs. For the recent 6-yr period during which real-time forecasts have been made, the skill of the raw model output is compared with that of the subjectively modified probabilistic forecasts actually issued.Despite variations from one basin to another, the levels of hindcast skill for the dynamical and statistical forecast approaches are found, overall, to be approximately equivalent at fairly modest but statistically significant levels. The dynamical forecasts require statistical postprossessing (calibration) to be competitive with, and in some circumstances superior to, the statistical models. Skill levels decrease only slowly with increasing lead time up to 2-3 months. During the recent period of real-time forecasts, the issued forecasts have had higher probabilistic skill than the raw model output, due to the forecasters' subjective elimination of the ''overconfidence'' bias in the model's forecasts. Prospects for the future improvement of dynamical tropical cyclone prediction are considered.

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“…Yumoto and Matsuura, 2001;Matsuura et al, 2003;Ho et al, 2004;Chan, 2005Chan, , 2008Liu and Chan, 2008;Chan and Xu, 2009;Kubota and Chan, 2009;Goh and Chan, 2010;Wang et al, 2010;Yeh et al, 2010), while the tracks of WNP TCs seem to be modulated largely by the location, strength, and extent of the North Pacific subtropical high pressure area. Some studies attribute these variations to alterations in coupled atmosphere-ocean phenomena on similar time scales such as ENSO or Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Tropical cyclone-related socio-economic losses in the western North Pacific region

Welker

Faust

2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The western North Pacific (WNP) is the area of the world most frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs).However, little is known about the socio-economic impacts of TCs in this region, probably because of the limited relevant loss data. Here, loss data from Munich RE's NatCat-SERVICE database is used, a high-quality and widely consulted database of natural disasters. In the country-level loss normalisation technique we apply, the original loss data are normalised to present-day exposure levels by using the respective country's nominal gross domestic product at purchasing power parity as a proxy for wealth. The main focus of our study is on the question of whether the decadal-scale TC variability observed in the Northwest Pacific region in recent decades can be shown to manifest itself economically in an associated variability in losses. It is shown that since 1980 the frequency of TC-related loss events in the WNP exhibited, apart from seasonal and interannual variations, interdecadal variability with a period of about 22 yr -driven primarily by corresponding variations of Northwest Pacific TCs. Compared to the long-term mean, the number of loss events was found to be higher (lower) by 14 % (9 %) in the positive (negative) phase of the decadal-scale WNP TC frequency variability. This was identified for the period 1980-2008 by applying a wavelet analysis technique. It was also possible to demonstrate the same low-frequency variability in normalised direct economic losses from TCs in the WNP region. The identification of possible physical mechanisms responsible for the observed decadal-scale Northwest Pacific TC variability will be the subject of future research, even if suggestions have already been made in earlier studies.

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A mechanism of interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

Cited by 128 publications

References 41 publications

Have steering flows in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea changed over the last 50 years?

Have steering flows in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea changed over the last 50 years?

Experimental Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity at IRI

Tropical cyclone-related socio-economic losses in the western North Pacific region

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