Background: Duloxetine is indicated in the management of pain in osteoarthritis. Evidence suggests that duloxetine modulates central pain mechanisms and cognitive factors, and these factors are assumed contributing to the analgesic effect. This proof-of-mechanism, randomized, placebo-controlled, crossover, double-blinded trial evaluated the effect of duloxetine on quantitative sensory testing (QST), cognitive factors and clinical pain in patients with osteoarthritis and to predict the analgesic effect.Methods: Twenty-five patients completed this cross-over study with either 18week duloxetine (maximum 60 mg/daily) followed by placebo or vice-versa. Pressure pain thresholds, temporal summation of pain and conditioned pain modulation were assessed using cuff algometry. The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and the Pain Catastrophizing Scale evaluated cognitive factors.
Clinical pain was assessed using Brief Pain Inventory and Western Ontario andMcMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index. Linear regression models were used to predict the analgesic effect of duloxetine.Results: Depending on the clinical pain outcome, 40%-68% of patients were classified as responders to duloxetine. Linear regression models predicted the analgesic effect (predictive value of 45%-75% depending on clinical pain outcome parameter) using a combination of pretreatment QST parameters, cognitive factors and clinical pain. No significant changes were found for QST, cognitive factors or clinical pain on a group level when comparing duloxetine to placebo.