A Measure of Trust: The Italian Regional Divide in a Latent Class Approach

Fazio, Giorgio; Giambona, Francesca; Vassallo, Erasmo; Vassiliadis, Elli

doi:10.1007/s11205-017-1756-4

Cited by 9 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Across southern regions high levels of trust are estimated in Molise and Basilicata and medium levels in Sicilia and Calabria. As noted in Fazio et al (2017), these maps highlights that the geographical distribution of political trust across Italy is more complex than the simplistic the North-South divide that is often used to describe Italy.…”

Section: <Figure 2 About Here>mentioning

confidence: 95%

Development and Evaluation of an Optimal Composite Estimator in Spatial Microsimulation Small Area Estimation

Moretti

Whitworth

2019

Geographical Analysis

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A range of data are of geographic interest but are not available at small area level from existing data sources. Small area estimation (SAE) offers techniques to estimate population parameters of target variables to detailed scales based on relationships between those target variables and relevant auxiliary variables. The resulting indirect small area estimate can deliver a lower mean squared error compared to its direct survey estimate given that variance can be reduced markedly even if bias increases. Spatial microsimulation SAE approaches are widely utilised but only beginning to engage with the potential of composite estimators that use a weighted combination of indirect and direct estimators to reduce further the mean squared error of the small area estimate compared to an indirect SAE estimator alone. This paper advances these approaches by constructing for the first time in the microsimulation literature an optimal composite estimator for such SAE approaches in which the combining weight is calculated from the mean squared errors of the two estimators, thus optimising the reduction in MSE of the resulting small area estimates. This optimal composite estimator is demonstrated and evaluated in a model-based simulation study and application based on real data.

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Section: <Figure 2 About Here>mentioning

confidence: 95%

Development and Evaluation of an Optimal Composite Estimator in Spatial Microsimulation Small Area Estimation

Moretti

Whitworth

2019

Geographical Analysis

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“…(b) High levels of political and institutional distrust (POLDIS), by relying on the most recent data available (from 2015) on levels of trust in institutions such as Parliament, the regional government, the municipal government, the political parties, the legal system and the police (Fazio et al 2018).…”

Section: Political Discontentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Populist electoral competition in Italy: the impact of sub-national contextual factors

Albertazzi

Zulianello

2021

Contemporary Italian Politics

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This article investigates the impact of sub-national contextual variations on the performance of populist actors in a country in which several electorally relevant populist parties exist: Italy. By employing a multi-model Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) of the 2018 Italian general election, it explores the extent to which factors such as the distribution of 'economic losers' and the impact of migration, political discontent and societal malaise have influenced the performance of the Lega (League) and the Movimento Cinque Stelle (Five-star Movement, M5s). The study shows that, while the League has thrived especially in areas characterized by 'cultural backlash', but also in contexts characterized by Euroscepticism and societal malaise, the success of the M5s cannot be explained without reference to poor economic and institutional performances. Moreover, by stressing the advantages of assessing subnational variations, the study encourages us to move away from one-size-fits-all grand narratives that see some factors (or combination of factors) as necessarily impacting populist performance throughout national territories in a consistent manner.

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“…It has been proposed to analyse material deprivation (Dotto et al, 2019) and the level of satisfaction on the primary work (Bartolucci et al, 2017). Note that both deprivation and work dissatisfaction have been found as negatively associated with levels of trust (see Fazio et al, 2018, and the references therein).…”

Section: Multivariate Hidden Markov Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other two Western European countries like Italy and France are characterised by lower level of public trust than that of Poland (see, among others Eurobarometer, 2014;Cautrès, 2017;Fazio et al, 2018). It is interesting to note that in France, this lack of public trust determined an impetus of social change due to discontentment about the government's method.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, a latent variable model (Skrondal and Rabe-Hesketh, 2004;Pennoni, 2014) is a valid tool to analyze responses provided to the items concerning this psychological process, which is multidimensional and dynamic over time. With respect to Fazio et al (2018) that employ a latent class model (Lazarsfeld, 1950) for the item responses to the questions on trust towards the Italian provincial government, we propose a hidden Markov model (HMM, Bartolucci et al, 2013) to account for the chronological order of responses provided at different time points by each individual.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysing the course of public trust via hidden Markov models: a focus on the Polish society

Pennoni

Genge

2019

Stat Methods Appl

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We investigate public trust using measurements from individual items recorded through a long-term survey. We account for repeated and missing item responses by a hidden Markov model. Since trust may be conceived as an unobservable psychological process of each person that fluctuates over time, we allow for time-varying and time-fixed individual covariates affecting the latent process. We estimate the model parameters by a weighted log-likelihood through the Expectation-Maximization algorithm using longitudinal sampling weights and data collected in an East-Central European country like Poland. The latter is a country where the level of support to the national and international institutions is one of the lowest among the European member states. We apply a suitable algorithm based on the posterior probabilities to predict the best allocation to each latent typology. The proposed model is validated by generating out-of-sample responses, and we find good predictive values. We disentangle four hidden groups of Poles: discouraged, with no opinion, with selective trust and with full public trust. We reveal an increasing number of people that are going to trust only some selected institutions over time.

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A Measure of Trust: The Italian Regional Divide in a Latent Class Approach

Cited by 9 publications

References 57 publications

Development and Evaluation of an Optimal Composite Estimator in Spatial Microsimulation Small Area Estimation

Development and Evaluation of an Optimal Composite Estimator in Spatial Microsimulation Small Area Estimation

Populist electoral competition in Italy: the impact of sub-national contextual factors

Analysing the course of public trust via hidden Markov models: a focus on the Polish society

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