Global mean sea level rose by approximately 1.8 mm/year over the last 50 years, increasing to approximately 3.1 mm/year during the 1990s (Church et al. 2004 ;Holgate and Woodworth 2004 ;Cazenave and Nerem 2004 ). Thermal expansion of ocean water accounts for approximately 0.4 mm/year of sea -level rise for the past four to fi ve decades, rising to approximately 1.5 mm/year during the last decade (Levitus et al. 2005;Ishii et al. 2006 ;Willis et al. 2004 ;Lombard et al. 2006 ). Contributions from water on land are probably small, with sequestration by dams more or less balanced by release of groundwater, but uncertainties are large (Chapter 8 ). The most important source of the remainder is likely land ice which, if it were all to melt, would cause sea -level rise of more than 60 m: with contributions of 88 and 11% from the big ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland respectively, and 1% from glaciers and ice caps (Table 7.1 ) 2 . Many glaciers and ice caps are currently retreating and have contributed a sea -level rise of 0.3 -0.45 mm/year over the last 50 years, rising to 0.8 mm/year over the last decade (Dyurgerov and Meier 2005 ) 3 . This leaves an unexplained contribution of approximately 1 mm/year, which probably comes from the big ice sheets. 7 1 Deceased. 2 Clarifi cation of terminology: two general categories of ice are considered as contributors to global sea -level rise. (1) The ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland, both of which drain into the surrounding ocean via a number of ice streams or outlet glaciers. Ice sheets are suffi ciently thick to cover most of the bedrock topography. (2) Glaciers and ice caps, mostly outside Antarctica and Greenland. A glacier is a mass of ice on the land fl owing downhill under gravity and an ice cap is a mass of ice that typically covers a highland area. 3 Note that estimates of sea -level rise associated with transfer of ice to the ocean are calculated by dividing the equivalent freshwater volume by ocean area. Elastic depression of the ocean bed would reduce sea -level rise estimates given in this chapter by about 6% (G. Milne, personal communication).
Understanding Sea-Level Rise and VariabilityEdited