A Mathematical Modelling Approach in the Spread of the Novel 2019 Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Pandemic

Cakir, Zafer; Savaş, Hasan Basri

doi:10.29333/ejgm/7861

Cited by 68 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Chinese scientists have identified at least 1 coronavirus strain and have released the gene sequence to allow laboratories across the world to establish independent PCR research methods for the detection of viral infection (5)(6)(7). Early activity has concentrated on explaining the course of the disease, reporting critical incidents, building the predictive models, and handling the ill (6)(7)(8)(9).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

From First COVID-19 Case to Current Outbreak: A Vietnamese Report

Duc

Tuấn

et al. 2020

Electron J Gen Med

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The 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak (now recognized as SARS-CoV-2, triggering the COVID-19 disease) has spread from Wuhan throughout China and has been distributed to an increasing range of countries. Early activity has concentrated on explaining the course of the disease, reporting critical incidents, and handling the ill. Currently, Vietnam, an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) country that shares a long border with China, has successfully controlled COVID-19. In this article, we aimed to provide updated information regarding COVID-19 in Vietnam, from the first case to the current outbreak. We hope the information in this article will help the world understand more about the surveillance and prevention policies of Vietnam's COVID-19. The numerous lessons learned will serve as a guide for handling possible pandemics, but a permanently new global framework is expected in the immediate future.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

From First COVID-19 Case to Current Outbreak: A Vietnamese Report

Duc

Tuấn

et al. 2020

Electron J Gen Med

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“…The SARS-CoV-2 virus has swept across the globe at what for some might consider a startling speed, but is essentially in accord with mathematical pandemic models (36)(37)(38).…”

Section: Coronavirus: Is Bcg Beneficial For Coronaviruses?mentioning

confidence: 98%

BCG is a Good Immunotherapeutic Agent for Viral and Autoimmune Diseases: Is it a New Weapon against Coronavirus (COVID-19)?

Sharquie

2020

Electron J Gen Med

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Now nearly a century old, the Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine is used routinely in humans for the prophylaxis of tuberculosis and to clear up leprosy. As the immune response to the vaccine shows some degree of cross-antigenicity, the vaccine also affects a level of resistance to a range of unrelated diseases and pathogens.Clinical studies data have shown that the BCG vaccine has effects on autoimmune and inflammatory diseases.Although the vaccine does not possess any inherent antiviral activity, it engages in the host immune system such that many types of viral infections are considerably reduced. Hence, we expect that the frequency and severity of many microbial diseases, including COVID-19, will be lower in counties in which mass BCG vaccination programs are implemented. So the BCG vaccine may prove useful in the coming months especially in countries where already have mass BCG vaccination, as the COVID-19 pandemic has placed an unprecedented strain on health services across the world. Currently, countless front-line healthcare staff is in immediate danger of exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Furthermore, as oral zinc sulfate as immunomodulator has proved an effective means to treat various viral diseases (including viral warts and herpes), parasitic infections, and diseases with autoimmune reactions such as Behcet's disease and recurrent aphthous stomatitis, it could be employed in combination with the BCG vaccine to enhance the immunological functions of patients with COVID-19. So BCG immunotherapy combined with oral zinc sulfate will be encouraging protective programs in societies where coronavirus is going to spread.

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“…which implies when m considers a value greater than 1, then rate of increasing of R 0 m w.r.t α is higher than that of R 0 m w.r.t α. (30) It can be checked that a 11 = a 33 , a 12 = a 34 , a 22 = a 44 , a 13 = a 31 , a 14 = a 32 , a 24 = a 42 . Therefore, matrix P o can be represented as,…”

Section: Remark 10 Clearlymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A mathematical SEIR model has been proposed to study the outbreak in Wuhan under the consideration of multiple pathways in infection dynamics and the role of environmental reservoir in transmission [29]. Using a mathematical model based on the informations the time-dependent spreading rate of the number of individuals who have caught a contagious disease is proportional to the multiplication of the numbers of those who have caught the disease and those who have not, a study has been made to investigate the pandemic situation and it has been shown that pandemic situation may change ery first in adverse direction [30]. But in these studies, critical limits of key parameters for stability and for eradication of disease are unfathomable.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Travelling and COVID-19: A Mathematical Model

Banerjee

2020

Preprint

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A non-linear mathematical model is proposed to study the impacts of travelling in human-human transmission of COVID- 19.Two different regions are considered and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 dissemination in two regions caused by travelling from one region to other and infection during travel are discussed.Besides contacts between susceptible and infected population of a region off the travel,transmission of disease due to contacts during travel is also considered.The proposed model is analysed using stability theory of ordinary differential equation and feasibility of qualitative results ia checked through numerical simulations.From obtained results,it is shown that travelling and population dispersal can aggravate disease spreading in each region.It is also inferred that rate of travelling and rate of contacts during travel and off the travel can ease the disease to take endemic form and for high rates,it may become pandemic. Further numerical calculations are performed and critical limits of the major factors enhancing spreading of disease.It is revealed that when the rates goes higher than their corresponding critical limits,disease may not be controlled due to high infection.It is also imparted that when the rates are high, disease can only be controlled with high rate of quarantine.Also approximate time or stability is evaluated for maximum as well as minimum rates of key parameters.The results obtained by analyzing the model recommends that for early stability of endemic situation, key factors must be kept as minimum as possible within estimated limits and quarantining infected class to control the transmission of disease.

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A Mathematical Modelling Approach in the Spread of the Novel 2019 Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Pandemic

Cited by 68 publications

References 5 publications

From First COVID-19 Case to Current Outbreak: A Vietnamese Report

From First COVID-19 Case to Current Outbreak: A Vietnamese Report

BCG is a Good Immunotherapeutic Agent for Viral and Autoimmune Diseases: Is it a New Weapon against Coronavirus (COVID-19)?

Travelling and COVID-19: A Mathematical Model

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