A Mathematical Model to Estimate the Risk of Microalbuminuria in an Overweight Adult Male Population

Abstract

Being overweight or obese promotes microalbuminuria and increases the risk of chronic kidney disease. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model to estimate the risk of microalbuminuria in overweight Chinese men. Urine albumin/creatinine ratio and metabolic variables were assessed in 1179 subjects, randomly divided into estimation and validation groups that were comparable with respect to all variables. Regression analysis identified body mass index, systolic blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose and blood uric acid as significant variables; these were used to develop a mathematical model for estimating the risk of microalbuminuria. The model generated a receiver-operating characteristic curve indicative of strong predictive accuracy for microalbuminuria (area under the curve, 0.81). A probability cut-off point of 0.50 resulted in global predictive values for microalbuminuria of 86.4% and 84.1% in the validation group (n = 354) and in all subjects, respectively. This model provides a beneficial tool for identifying overweight Chinese men at risk of microalbuminuria; additional studies are required to examine the predictive ability of the model further.