A mathematical model to estimate the seasonal change in apparent longevity of bee colony

Yamada, Yasuhiro; Yamada, Toshiro; Yamada, Kazuko

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-40725-0

Cited by 12 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…We previously proposed the following mathematical model to estimate apparent longevity using only numbers of adult bees and capped brood (Yamada, Yamada & Yamada, 2019):…”

Section: Mathematical Model For Apparent Longevitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Control colonies into which pesticide-free sugar syrup was fed showed similar seasonal changes in apparent longevity to one another among three long-term field experiments conducted in Shika. Apparent longevity began to increase in the latter half of September, increased rapidly from the latter half of October with the approach of winter, reached a maximum in the latter half of April in the ensuing year, then decreased dramatically (Yamada, Yamada & Yamada, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…We proposed a mathematical model with no arbitrary parameters that provides an estimation of "apparent longevity", meaning the age in days of longest surviving group in a honeybee colony as an indicator of its period (Yamada, Yamada & Yamada, 2019). Apparent longevity can be estimated using only the number of adult bees and capped brood.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparison of long-term changes in size and longevity of bee colonies in mid-west Japan and Maui with and without exposure to pesticide, cold winters, and mites

Yamada

Yamada²

2020

PeerJ

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Four long-term field experiments in mid-west Japan (Shika) made it clear that extinction of colonies exposed to neonicotinoid was much higher than for colonies exposed to organophosphates. The incidence of hive death for of organophosphate-exposed and control (pesticide-free) colonies was similar. We conducted a field experiment in Maui for 271 days using the same pesticides (dinotefuran: 0.2 ppm, clothianidin: 0.08 ppm, fenitrothion: 1 ppm) as used in Shika with the honeybee, Apis mellifera, colonies without mites. Numbers of adult bees, capped brood, mites and other hive parameters were accurately counted on photographs of combs and on the inside of the hives. All six neonicotinoid (dinotefuran & clothianidin)-exposed colonies failed during the experiment. One of three organophosphate (fenitrothion)-exposed colonies and one of the three control colonies also failed. The findings from Maui, where colonies displayed no mites, provides evidence from Shika, with mites, that neonicotinoids are more hazardous to honeybee colonies than organophosphates. The apparent longevity of honeybee colonies on Maui was estimated by numbers of adult bees and capped brood using a mathematical model previously proposed. Seasonal changes in longevity on Maui differ greatly from changes at Shika, the latter showing distinct seasonal variation. Longevity on Maui remains nearly constant throughout the year with wide variations. At Shika, it increases drastically in winter, by six- to ten fold more than the other seasons. Differences seem to depend on the existence of cold winters and the length of flowering seasons. In a perpetually hospitable environment, small changes in conditions can be sensitively reflected in apparent longevity. Examining wide variations in apparent longevity that are seemingly incoherent, we recognized several differences in apparent longevity between neonicotinoid-exposed and organophosphate-exposed colonies: The colony that failed in after organophosphate-exposure colony group exhibited the longest apparent longevity and the fewest number of newly capped brood, as also was the case in control colonies. Extended longevity when few brood are newly produced is reasonable to maintain the colony from a physiological point of view. Extension of apparent longevity is not seen in neonicotinoid-exposed colonies when the number of newly capped brood is fewer. This finding suggests that neonicotinoid pesticides may inhibit normal apian physiology.

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“…We previously proposed the following mathematical model to estimate apparent longevity using only numbers of adult bees and capped brood (Yamada, Yamada & Yamada, 2019):…”

Section: Mathematical Model For Apparent Longevitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

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Comparison of long-term changes in size and longevity of bee colonies in mid-west Japan and Maui with and without exposure to pesticide, cold winters, and mites

Yamada

Yamada²

2020

PeerJ

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“…September [46], it may be effective to exterminate Varroa mites for bee larvae in early autumn (early September) when preparations of wintering have be started. The fluctuation range of the inner temperature of the hive-box (Ti) is smaller than that of the ambient temperature of the hive-box (Ta).…”

Section: Cr-mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the near future, we will investigate the seasonal change in the apparent longevity whose mathematical model was proposed previously [46], for the DF-exposed & Varroa-mite-damaged colony where DF was administered via pollen paste, using the numbers of adult bees and capped brood measured accurately in this work. Figure S1: The inside of the hive box is numbered clockwise from the face of the entrance, Figure S2: An example of numbered comb frame, Figure S3: Photo stand, two empty hive-boxes, experiment log and beekeeping tools, Figure S4: Overall view of experimental site, Method S1: Field experimental procedures, Method S2: Determination procedure of the numbers of adult bees and capped brood, Method S3: Criteria for determining mite-damaged bees and estimating the number of mite-damaged bees, Table S1: Summary of experimental conditions and results of four long-term field experiments in Shika, Japan, Table S2: Weather information & Experimental time, Table S3: Summary of observational results for control colonies (CR-1; CR-2; CR-3), Table S4: Summary of observational results for DF-exposed colonies (DF-1; DF-2; DF-3), Table S5: Summary of experimental note.…”

Section: Cr-mentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal Changes in Size and Mite-Prevalence of a Bee Colony Exposed to Dinotefuran via Pollen Paste and Damaged by <em>Varroa</em> Mites

Yamada¹

2020

Preprint

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Neonicotinoids, such as dinotefuran (DF), have caused a variety of problems, such as massive loss and winter failure of the bee colony, as a price for the benefit of reducing farm work, because it continues to maintain a high insecticide activity over a long period of time. In this study, a field experiment was conducted for about six months to investigate the effects of DF on bee colonies damaged by Varroa mites. This study examined the long-term changes in such as the size of bee colonies, the intake of sugar syrup (SS), intake of pollen paste (PP), which is a vehicle for administering DF, the intake of DF, the mite-prevalence of bees and the inside and outside temperatures of hive-boxes. The variation width of the inner temperature of the hive-box is less than that of the ambient temperature (Ta). The inner temperature of the hive-box is adjusted with about 30 ℃ of Ta as the boundary. If Ta is lower than 30 ℃, the inner temperature of the box is higher than Ta, and if Ta is higher than 30 ℃, it is lower than Ta. The temperature variation width of the DF-exposed colony is greater than that of the control colony. The average intake of SS per bee per day of the DF-exposed colony is more than that of the control colony. The average intake of PP per bee per day of the DF-exposed colony is almost equal to that of the control colony. These results suggest that bees do not avoid DF, and ingest PP without distinction between toxic and pesticide-free. In the period from the start of DF administration to the colony extinction, the intake of DF per colony is about 865 µg/colony, the intake per bee is 14 ng/bee, and the intake per bee per day is less than 0.1 ng/bee/day in this work. These intakes are much lower than the previous ones (60-65 ng/bee, 0.27-2.32 ng/bee/day). These discrepancies may be because attacks of mites and Japanese giant hornets hastened the colony collapse. Seasonal changes in mite-prevalence of honeybees is approximately the same regardless of the bee colonies. At the end of August (the start of attacks by Japanese giant hornets), the mite-prevalence will increase rapidly. Even if the number of bees damaged by mites turns to decrease, the mite-prevalence will continue to increase, with approaching 100% before bee colonies become extinct. In this study, it was found that the bee colony was collapsed by the intake of a smaller amount of DF due to the synergistic effect of DF and mite-damage. To prevent a bee colony collapse, not only to make an effort to minimalize the adverse effect on the bee colony of neonicotinoids such as DF with long-term residual effect and high insecticide properties, it is necessary to reduce the damage of mites as much as possible, while considering the synergistically adverse effects of neonicotinoids and miticides.

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Evaluating and Explaining the Variability of Honey Bee Field Studies across Europe Using BEEHAVE

Agatz,

Miles,

Roeben

et al. 2023

Enviro Toxic and Chemistry

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To assess the effect of plant protection products on pollinator colonies, the higher tier of environmental risk assessment (ERA), for managed honey bee colonies and other pollinators, is in need of a mechanistic effect model. Such models are seen as a promising solution to the shortcomings, which empirical risk assessment can only overcome to a certain degree. A recent assessment of 40 models conducted by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) revealed that BEEHAVE is currently the only publicly available mechanistic honey bee model that has the potential to be accepted for ERA purposes. A concern in the use of this model is a lack of model validation against empirical data, spanning field studies conducted in different regions of Europe and covering the variability in colony and environmental conditions. We filled this gap with a BEEHAVE validation study against 66 control colonies of field studies conducted across Germany, Hungary, and the United Kingdom. Our study implements realistic initial colony size and landscape structure to consider foraging options. Overall, the temporal pattern of colony strength is predicted well. Some discrepancies between experimental data and prediction outcomes are explained by assumptions made for model parameterization. Complementary to the recent EFSA study using BEEHAVE, our validation covers a large variability in colony conditions and environmental impacts representing the Northern and Central European Regulatory Zones. Thus we believe that BEEHAVE can be used to serve the development of specific protection goals as well as the development of simulation scenarios for the European Regulatory Zone. Subsequently, the model can be applied as a standard tool for higher tier ERA of managed honey bees using the mechanistic ecotoxicological module for BEEHAVE, BEEHAVEecotox. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:1839–1850. © 2023 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

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A mathematical model to estimate the seasonal change in apparent longevity of bee colony

Cited by 12 publications

References 38 publications

Comparison of long-term changes in size and longevity of bee colonies in mid-west Japan and Maui with and without exposure to pesticide, cold winters, and mites

Comparison of long-term changes in size and longevity of bee colonies in mid-west Japan and Maui with and without exposure to pesticide, cold winters, and mites

Seasonal Changes in Size and Mite-Prevalence of a Bee Colony Exposed to Dinotefuran via Pollen Paste and Damaged by <em>Varroa</em> Mites

Evaluating and Explaining the Variability of Honey Bee Field Studies across Europe Using BEEHAVE

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