A Mathematical Model of Rabies Transmission Dynamics in Dogs Incorporating Public Health Education as a Control Strategy -A Case Study of Makueni County

Abstract

Rabies is a zoonotic viral disease that aects all mammals including human beings. Dogs are responsible for 99% of human rabies cases and the disease is always fatal once the symptoms appear. In Kenya the disease is still endemic despite the fact that there are ecient vaccines for controlling the disease. In this project, we developed SIRS mathematical model using a system of ordinary dierential equations from the model to study the transmission dynamics of rabies virusin dogs using public health education as a control strategy. The reproduction number R0 was calculated using the Next Generation Matrix. Both disease free and endemics equilibrium points were determined and their stability analysis performed. From the stability analysis results it was found out that the disease free equilibrium point is both locally and globally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1 and the endemic equilibrium point is both locally and globally asymptotically stable when R0 > 1. Numerical simulations done using Matlab indicated that education of the public on administration of both pre and post exposure vaccines to dogs and responsible dog ownership leads to a decrease in the numbers of rabies virus infected dogs which shows that public health education is an ecient means for controlling rabies.

A Scoping Review of the Effectiveness of Control Interventions of Human and Canine Rabies in an Effort to Rationalise the One Health Approach

“…Five studies (CDC, 2019;Jeon et al, 2019;Laager et al, 2018;S. Musaili & Chepkwony, 2020;WHO, 2020c) considered shifting the focus on vaccinating free-roaming stray dogs as the most effective means to control rabies both in a endemic setting or in a rabiesfree area as a preventive measure.…”

“…Wei et al, 2018 stated that a control strategy involving mass dog vaccination, dog surveillance and monitoring, as well as human rabies case reporting can effectively reduce the spread of rabies from dogs to humans and successfully control endemic rabies in Guangxi. A study done by Fitzpatrick (Fitzpatrick et al, 2016) recommended vaccinating more of the stray dog population to control human rabies death while Musaili (S. Musaili & Chepkwony, 2020) emphasized the importance of public health education regarding both pre-and post-exposure prophylaxis for dogs as well as the practice of responsible dog ownership. According to Muthiani (Muthiani et al, 2015), to increase the public awareness on mass dog vaccination, a stakeholder approach concerning a proactive participation of the community along every step of the process from the initial planning up to the implementation stage of the vaccination campaign should be integrated.…”

“…Around 47% of the studies (Borse et al, 2018;Hudson et al, 2019;Jeon et al, 2019;Laager et al, 2018;S. Musaili & Chepkwony, 2020;Taib et al, 2019;Wei et al, 2018;Yoder et al, 2019) included in our review were publications from the past three years while the remaining percentage (Bilinski et al, 2016;Dumas et al, 2015;Ferguson et al, 2015;Fitzpatrick et al, 2016;Mindekem et al, 2017;Muthiani et al, 2015;Velasco-Villa et al, 2017;E Wera et al, 2017;Ewaldus Wera et al, 2017) were published from the year 2015 to year 2017.…”

“…Musaili & Chepkwony, 2020;Taib et al, 2019;Wei et al, 2018;Yoder et al, 2019) included in our review were publications from the past three years while the remaining percentage (Bilinski et al, 2016;Dumas et al, 2015;Ferguson et al, 2015;Fitzpatrick et al, 2016;Mindekem et al, 2017;Muthiani et al, 2015;Velasco-Villa et al, 2017;E Wera et al, 2017;Ewaldus Wera et al, 2017) were published from the year 2015 to year 2017. Six studies (35%) were concerned on rabies in the continent of Africa; two in Chad (Mindekem et al, 2017;Yoder et al, 2019) one in Mali (Muthiani et al, 2015), one in Kenya (S. Musaili & Chepkwony, 2020), one in Tanzania (Bilinski et al, 2016) and one study in East Africa (Borse et al, 2018). Another four studies (23%) considered rabies in South East Asia; two in Indonesia (E Ewaldus Wera et al, 2017) one in Philippines (Ferguson et al, 2015) and one in Malaysia (Taib et al, 2019).…”

“…Although the endemic setting was the focal point in most literatures, three studies (Dumas et al, 2015;Hudson et al, 2019;Wei et al, 2018) have analysed the effectiveness of rabies prevention and control strategies in a rabies-free scenario. There were 13 studies utilising mathematical models to simulate disease transmission; nine (Bilinski et al, 2016;Fitzpatrick et al, 2016;Hudson et al, 2019;Mindekem et al, 2017;S. Musaili & Chepkwony, 2020;E Wera et al, 2017;Ewaldus Wera et al, 2017;Yoder et al, 2019) of which used a compartmental, deterministic model, one (Dumas et al, 2015) used decision-tree model, while another two (Taib et al, 2019;Wei et al, 2018) used individual-and agent-based models.…”