A mathematical model for the impacts of face mask, hospitalization and quarantine on the dynamics of COVID-19 in India: deterministic vs. stochastic

Srivastav, Akhil Kumar; Tiwari, Pankaj Kumar; Srivastava, Prashant K.; Ghosh, Mini; Kang, Yun

doi:10.3934/mbe.2021010

Cited by 52 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…This is supported in the works by [7] and [8]. In [9], authors have also presented findings on how increasing efficacy of face masks and quarantine will help in reducing the infection rate. In the studies by [10] a detailed analysis of the model is developed based on different government policies in the country of South Africa, suggesting the measures as mentioned above.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Modeling and analysis of COVID-19 in India with treatment function through different phases of lockdown and unlock

Bandekar

Ghosh

2021

Stochastic Analysis and Applications

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India, unlike several other countries, has witnessed a greater challenge in overcoming the pandemic during the second wave crisis. The strategies on lockdown imposition during the first wave of the pandemic were well implemented due to which the year-long wave did not witness uncontrollable surges in the infections. In this study, we present a detailed study on the disease spread during the first and second wave of COVID-19, by performing numerical simulation in a phase-wise manner as per the lockdown and unlock phases implemented in India. The inclusion of a piecewise treatment function in the framed epidemiological model is a noteworthy aspect of the study since this function takes into consideration the availability of medical equipment, based upon the threshold number of infections. This function framed in this model first grows linearly reaching a peak, then it declines due to shortage of medical resources and finally gets saturated. Analysis of the impact of lockdown is presented for each phase of the pandemic in India. Though the data considered for the study is for a period that marked the beginning of the pandemic, major analysis and predictions are presented based on the second wave data in terms of sensitivity analysis and time series behavior. A comparison of deterministic and stochastic differential equations is presented with simulation results on certain parameter set to examine variation in treatment and recovery. The simulations are performed using MATLAB and R softwares. The work is validated with the real data and model fitting is done applying the Maximum Likelihood method. The study implies that, under accurate lockdown strategies and sufficient medical care, the peak in cases would be attained by 16 May 2021, after which a decline in the cases could be observed.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Modeling and analysis of COVID-19 in India with treatment function through different phases of lockdown and unlock

Bandekar

Ghosh

2021

Stochastic Analysis and Applications

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“…However, even modestly effective masks with uptake levels of 50% or greater, can substantially improve epidemic control. Masks should be seen as an important measure along with other NPIs during an epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 (1,4,(36)(37)(38). We assumed an effectiveness of 67% of masks in the base case scenario, which requires surgical masks or high-quality cloth masks to be used.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Universal Mask Use on SARS-COV-2 in Victoria, Australia on the Epidemic Trajectory of COVID-19

Costantino

MacIntyre

2021

Front. Public Health

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Objective(s): To estimate the impact of universal community face mask use in Victoria, Australia along with other routine disease control measures in place.Methods: A mathematical modeling study using an age structured deterministic model for Victoria, was simulated for 123 days between 1 June 2020 and 1 October 2020, incorporating lockdown, contact tracing, and case findings with and without mask use in varied scenarios. The model tested the impact of differing scenarios of the universal use of face masks in Victoria, by timing, varying mask effectiveness, and uptake.Results: A six-week lockdown with standard control measures, but no masks, would have resulted in a large resurgence by September, following the lifting of restrictions. Mask use can substantially reduce the epidemic size, with a greater impact if at least 50% of people wear a mask which has an effectiveness of at least 40%. Early mask use averts more cases than mask usage that is only implemented closer to the peak. No mask use, with a 6-week lockdown, results in 67,636 cases and 120 deaths by 1 October 2020 if no further lockdowns are used. If mask use at 70% uptake commences on 23 July 2020, this is reduced to 7,961 cases and 42 deaths. We estimated community mask effectiveness to be 11%.Conclusion(s): Lockdown and standard control measures may not have controlled the epidemic in Victoria. Mask use can substantially improve epidemic control if its uptake is higher than 50% and if moderately effective masks are used. Early mask use should be considered in other states if community transmission is present, as this has a greater effect than later mask wearing mandates.

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“…They suggested that effective lockdown is very necessary to reduce the burden of disease. Srivastav et al [ 30 ] have studied the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic in India to assess the impacts of face mask, hospitalization of symptomatic individuals and quarantine of asymptomatic individuals. Their findings suggest that the frequent use of face mask while in public places together with hospitalization of symptomatic individuals and quarantine of asymptomatic individuals is effective measures to reduce the burden of COVID-19 in India.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Motivated by the works of [ 30 , 35 , 36 ], in this paper, we study the control of COVID-19 pandemic by creating awareness among populations at local and global levels by extending the work of Rai et al [ 34 ] and Srivastav et al [ 30 ]. Our model is different from models considered in [ 30 , 34 ], in the following sense. Srivastav et al [ 30 ] have investigated the impacts of frequent use of face mask on the prevalence of coronavirus pandemic in India, and Rai et al [ 34 ] proposed a mathematical model to assess the impact of social media advertisements on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic in India, whereas in the present paper, we investigate to what extent the global information campaigns stemming from social media together with local awareness arising from interaction between unaware susceptible and aware people affect the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic in India.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamics of coronavirus pandemic: effects of community awareness and global information campaigns

et al. 2021

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The effects of social media advertisements together with local awareness in controlling COVID-19 are explored in the present investigation by means of a mathematical model. The expression for the basic reproduction number is derived. Sufficient conditions for the global stability of endemic equilibrium are obtained. We perform sensitivity analysis to identify the key parameters of the model having great impacts on the prevalence and control of COVID-19. We calibrate the proposed model to fit the data set of COVID-19 cases for India. Our simulation results show that dissemination rate of awareness among susceptible individuals at community level and individual level plays pivotal role in curtailing the COVID-19 disease. Moreover, we observe that the global information distributing from social media and local awareness coming from mouth-to-mouth communication between unaware susceptible and aware people, together with hospitalization of symptomatic individuals and quarantine of asymptomatic individuals, are much beneficial in reducing COVID-19 cases in India. Our study suggests that both global and local awareness must be implemented effectively to manage the burden of COVID-19 pandemic.

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A mathematical model for the impacts of face mask, hospitalization and quarantine on the dynamics of COVID-19 in India: deterministic vs. stochastic

Cited by 52 publications

References 30 publications

Modeling and analysis of COVID-19 in India with treatment function through different phases of lockdown and unlock

Modeling and analysis of COVID-19 in India with treatment function through different phases of lockdown and unlock

The Impact of Universal Mask Use on SARS-COV-2 in Victoria, Australia on the Epidemic Trajectory of COVID-19

Dynamics of coronavirus pandemic: effects of community awareness and global information campaigns

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