A mathematical model for estimating the age-specific transmissibility of a novel coronavirus

Zhao, Zeyu; Zhu, Yuanzhao; Xu, Jingwen; Hu, Qingqing; Rui, Jia; Liu, Xingchun; Wang, Yao; Yang, Meng; Luo, Li; Yu, Shanshan; Li, Jia; Liu, Ruo-Yun; Xie, Fang; Su, Yingying; Chiang, Yi-Chen; Su, Yanhua; Zhao, Bin; Chen, Tianmu

doi:10.1101/2020.03.05.20031849

Cited by 24 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…To estimate the number of prevalent infectious individuals on day t ( P t ), we multiplied the number of incident infections up to day t by the probability that an individual who became infectious on day i was still infectious on day t : Where γ (t-i) is the cumulative distribution function of the infectious period. We modeled the infectious period as gamma distribution with mean 7 days and standard deviation 4.5 days which aligns with other modeling studies (Prem et al, 2020;Zhao et al, 2020) .…”

Section: Travel Importation Risk Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 54%

Coast-to-coast spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States revealed by genomic epidemiology

Fauver

Petrone

Hodcroft

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Since its emergence and detection in Wuhan, China in late 2019, the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has spread to nearly every country around the world, resulting in hundreds of thousands of infections to date. The virus was first detected in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States in January, 2020, with subsequent COVID-19 outbreaks detected in all 50 states by early March. To uncover the sources of SARS-CoV-2 introductions and patterns of spread within the U.S., we sequenced nine viral genomes from early reported COVID-19 patients in Connecticut. Our phylogenetic analysis places the majority of these genomes with viruses sequenced from Washington state. By coupling our genomic data with domestic and international travel patterns, we show that early SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Connecticut was likely driven by domestic introductions. Moreover, the risk of domestic importation to Connecticut exceeded that of international importation by mid-March regardless of our estimated impacts of federal travel restrictions. This study provides evidence for widespread, sustained transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within the U.S. and highlights the critical need for local surveillance.

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Section: Travel Importation Risk Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 54%

Coast-to-coast spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States revealed by genomic epidemiology

Fauver

Petrone

Hodcroft

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Where g(t-i) is the cumulative distribution function of the infectious period. We modeled the infectious period as gamma distribution with mean 7 days and standard deviation 4.5 days which aligns with other modeling studies (Prem et al, 2020;Zhao et al, 2020). We assumed that cases would not travel once they were diagnosed and therefore removed them from our estimate of infectious travelers (T t ):…”

Section: Travel Importation Risk Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coast-to-Coast Spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the Early Epidemic in the United States

Fauver

Petrone

Hodcroft

et al. 2020

Cell

347

302

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Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre-including this research content-immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

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“…The simulation-based study on the transmission of coronavirus from the bats to humans is also explored through the

like structures [16] . The age-dependent transmissibility and prediction are present in the modelling structure of

[80] . Note that, the nonconstant nature of the reproduction number of the ongoing pandemic disease depicts the brutal character of the novel coronavirus towards the human population.…”

Section: Existing Literature Based On the Proposed Classificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution

Paul

Reja

Kundu

et al. 2021

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals

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A mathematical model for estimating the age-specific transmissibility of a novel coronavirus

Abstract: 37Background: A novel coronavirus named as "SARS-CoV-2" has spread widely in many countries since 38 December 2019, especially in China. This study aimed to quantify the age-specific transmissibility by 39 using a mathematical model.

Cited by 24 publications

References 24 publications

Coast-to-coast spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States revealed by genomic epidemiology

Coast-to-coast spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States revealed by genomic epidemiology

Coast-to-Coast Spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the Early Epidemic in the United States

COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution

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