A mathematical model for estimating the potential margin of state undecided voters for a candidate in a US Federal election

Understanding the Fundamentals of the U.S. Presidential Election System

“…Also, nobody knows what the distribution of the cast votes could be, especially taking into account that in today's America, more than 40% of all eligible voters usually do not vote in presidential elections [63]. Moreover, it seems doubtful that the votes cast in favor of presidential electors in the 50 states and in D.C. tallied together can be viewed as the will of the nation in a presidential election.…”

“…The American electorate has traditionally been divided into five parts [20,63,101]. The first part is formed by eligible voters who support a candidate from the Democratic Party in virtue of a) tradition, b) conviction that the Democratic candidate is always the best to fill the office of President under any circumstance, no matter who the candidate is, or for any other reasons.…”

“…Though according to various estimates [63,101], voters from the fifth group represent only between 10 and 16 percent of all eligible voters, in any close presidential election, the whole campaign of the major party candidates is aimed at "winning the hearts and minds" of voters from the fifth group, while maintaining the status-quo within the first group (for the Democrats) and within the second group (for the Republicans). In contrast, despite the fourth group of voters represents a great source of votes for any party candidate, as well as for independent candidates, these voters have not been studied to the degree allowing one to predict their behavior in a particular election, at least towards favoring presidential candidates from major political parties [63].…”

A Discrete Mathematical Modeling and Optimal Control of the Electoral Behavior with regard to a Political Party

“…Studies and research on the subject of elections are still ongoing to the present time (For example, [3,[5][6][7][8][9][10][11]). Also, mathematical modeling has been widely used to study different topics concerning the electoral processes and the dynamics of political systems (For example, [12][13][14][15]).…”

A simple mathematical model for the spread of two political parties

“…Some modeling studies have been conducted regarding the growth of political parties and voters [2][3][4][5][6][7]. In most of the modeling studies statistical methodology is being used by considering that two political parties are competing for the voters class.…”