Abstract:Abstract. Climate change is typically modelled using sophisticated mathematical models (Climate Models) of physical processes taking place over long periods of time. Multi-model ensembles of climate models show better correlation with the observations than any of the models separately. Currently, an open research question is how climate models can be combined to create an ensemble in an optimal way. We present a novel approach based on Markov chains to estimate model weights in order to obtain ensemble means. … Show more
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