A Markov Chain Analysis of Pork Farm Size Distributions in the South

Abstract

Concerns over declining farm numbers, shifts in farm size distribution, and associated infrastructural problems have led to a heightened awareness of structural considerations within policy making circles. Future policy decisions will have substantial structural consequences for the agricultural industry. Often, however, the indirect effects of grain pricing policies on the livestock sector have been overlooked in these policy decisions. The incorporation of price effects into a Markov chain analysis of pork farm size distributions and the simulation of those projections to the year 2000 under various price scenarios should provide some insight into the future structure of livestock farming in the South.

Information-based estimators for the non-stationary transition probability matrix: an application to the Danish pork industry

“…The pork farm distribution typifies similar trends in pork industry elsewhere (Massow, et al, 1992;Disney, et al, 1988), as well as the general trend in the farm sector (Evans, 1988b). The total number of farms has decreased from 46,094 to 17,689 between 1984-1998 (a 61.2% decrease).…”

“…Traditional estimation techniques fail, or require strong restrictions, because the estimated 1 Evans, 1987b, and the accompanying papers at the symposium on "Empirical analysis of size distribution of farms" 2 See for example Evans, 1987a for a review 3 Lee et al (1977) provide a partial literature list for general Markov studies; Zepeda (1995a&b) also provide a more recent list of mainly agriculture related Markov studies. 4 See for example Adelman 1958;Padberg 1962;Lee et al, 1977, Oustapassidis, 1986 See for example Lee, et al, 1977;Disney, et al, 1988;Massow, et al, 1992;Zepeda, 1996a,b, and their cited references.…”

Dynamics of Structural Change in the Ontario Hog Industry

“…Several authors have estimated a Markov chain transition probability matrix using a minimization of absolute deviations approach (Disney, Duffy and Hardy 1988;Edwards, Smith and Peterson 1985;Kim and Schaible 1988). This approach uses a linear program to minimize the estimation errors while deriving probabilities using time series data.…”

“…Disney, Duffy and Hardy (1988) propose that the conditional transition probabilities are defined by a linear function of the exogenous variable, as in Eq. 4 provides results consistent with an underlying assumption that the transition probabilities are stationary.…”

Extensions of a maximum entropy estimated Markov decision process in the United States agricultural economy

“…Chan (1981) applies a Markov model to the Canadian cattle industry. Disney, Duffy, and Hardy (1988) use Markov chains to analyze pork farm sizes. Kristensen and Jørgensen (2000) use a…”