2022
DOI: 10.3390/app122111163
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A Machine Learning-Based 10 Years Ahead Prediction of Departing Foreign Visitors by Reasons: A Case on Türkiye

Abstract: The most important underlying reasons for marketing failures are incomplete understanding of customer wants and needs and the inability to accurately predict their future behaviors. This study develops a machine learning model to estimate the number of departing foreign visitors from Türkiye by reasons for the next 10 years to gain a deeper understanding of their future behaviors. The data between 2003 and 2021 are extensively analyzed, and a multi-dimensional model having a higher-order fractional-order polyn… Show more

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Cited by 10 publications
(5 citation statements)
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References 28 publications
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“…The robustness and scalability of SFAO in more extensive and diverse datasets remain areas for further exploration. Additionally, integrating adaptive learning mechanisms, which modulate hyperparameters based on input data [41], could further enhance the efficacy of SFAO.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The robustness and scalability of SFAO in more extensive and diverse datasets remain areas for further exploration. Additionally, integrating adaptive learning mechanisms, which modulate hyperparameters based on input data [41], could further enhance the efficacy of SFAO.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The present study included the development of predictive models for several tourist places that comprise the Moche Route; however, the reviewed studies differentiated in terms of the results, because the focus was on a single place of analysis or the one with the greatest influx, as in [20], which focused on Turkey. This difference in the analysis in the present investigation and the previous studies that focused on a single place could have contributed to the models not having the expected performance with high predictions.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In other works, deep learning algorithms and neural networks have been applied, such as in [20], where a machine learning model was developed to estimate the number of foreign visitors leaving Turkey for certain reasons. In addition, algorithms have been applied to batch type genetics to learn unknown model parameters when considering disruptions, for example, because of COVID-19.…”
Section: Digital Transformation Applied To Tourismmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Huang et al [10] researched potential combinations of traditional Automated Passenger Counters (APC) and a novel source capable of collecting detailed mobile demand data but did not include a reputation management module to prevent malicious data uploads. Tutsoy et al [25] proposed an AI based long-term policy making algorithm aiming to maximize the number of the students attending the schools while minimizing the number of the casualties. Tutsoy et al [26] proposed a study that can contribute to marketing science by presenting a strong estimation of future consumer behavior in tourism through machine-learningbased predictions.…”
Section: Related Workmentioning
confidence: 99%