A Long-Term Power Supply Risk Evaluation Method for China Regional Power System Based on Probabilistic Production Simulation
Jianzu Hu,
Yuefeng Wang,
Fan Cheng
et al.
Abstract:To qualify the risk of extreme weather events for power supply security during the long-term power system transformation process, this paper proposes a risk probability evaluation method based on probabilistic production simulation. Firstly, the internal relationship of extreme weather intensity and duration is depicted using the copula function, and the influences of extreme weather on power security are described using the guaranteed power output ability coefficient, which can provide the extreme scenario ba… Show more
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