A Long-Term Fine-Resolution Record of AVHRR Surface Temperatures for the Laurentian Great Lakes

White, Charles H.; Heidinger, A. K.; Ackerman, Steven A.; McIntyre, Peter B.

doi:10.3390/rs10081210

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 53 publications

(75 reference statements)

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“…Most of our understanding of large lake warming trends comes from observations of summer LSWT due to data availability restrictions in satellite measurements, buoy deployment schedules, and seasonal ice conditions 6,7,[16][17][18][19] . There has been an improved understanding of year-round or seasonal surface trends from satellite remote sensing in recent years that demonstrates the physical drivers of surface warming and the spatial and temporal variation of LSWT warming and overturn in the Laurentian Great Lakes [20][21][22] . However, these trends in surface temperatures are not easily translated into the more complex deep subsurface conditions, where stratification, thermocline depth, and density gradient influence subsurface mixing.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal overturn and stratification changes drive deep-water warming in one of Earth’s largest lakes

et al. 2021

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Most of Earth’s fresh surface water is consolidated in just a few of its largest lakes, and because of their unique response to environmental conditions, lakes have been identified as climate change sentinels. While the response of lake surface water temperatures to climate change is well documented from satellite and summer in situ measurements, our understanding of how water temperatures in large lakes are responding at depth is limited, as few large lakes have detailed long-term subsurface observations. We present an analysis of three decades of high frequency (3-hourly and hourly) subsurface water temperature data from Lake Michigan. This unique data set reveals that deep water temperatures are rising in the winter and provides precise measurements of the timing of fall overturn, the point of minimum temperature, and the duration of the winter cooling period. Relationships from the data show a shortened winter season results in higher subsurface temperatures and earlier onset of summer stratification. Shifts in the thermal regimes of large lakes will have profound impacts on the ecosystems of the world’s surface freshwater.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal overturn and stratification changes drive deep-water warming in one of Earth’s largest lakes

et al. 2021

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“…Some land areas that showed little or no warming are those known to have experienced agricultural intensification and expansion of irrigated area, such as the northern Great Plains in North America and the Indus Valley [47,48], or enhanced sea breeze, such as coastal California [49,50]. ERA5 also showed less or no summer warming over the Laurentian Great Lakes, with cooling over Lake Superior, which is inconsistent with in situ and satellite data that show rapid summer warming there [51][52][53] and may point to problems in modeling or data assimilation over lakes in ERA5.…”

Section: Warming and Amplificationmentioning

confidence: 79%

Amplification of Extreme Hot Temperatures over Recent Decades

Krakauer

2023

Climate

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While global warming is mostly conceptualized in terms of increases in mean temperature, changes in the most extreme conditions encountered often have disproportionate impacts. Here, a measure of warming amplification is defined as the change in the highest yearly temperature (denoted TXx), representing extreme heat, minus that in the 80th percentile daily high temperature (Tmax80), which represents typical summer conditions. Based on the ERA5 reanalysis, over 1959–2021, warming of TXx averaged 1.56 K over land areas, whereas warming of Tmax80 averaged 1.60 K. However, the population-weighted mean warming of TXx significantly exceeded warming of Tmax80 (implying positive amplification) over Africa, South America, and Oceania. Where available, station temperature observations generally showed similar trends to ERA5. These findings provide a new target for climate model calibration and insight for evaluating the changing risk of temperature extremes.

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“…For example, enhanced surface warming rates have previously been linked to a loss of historic ice cover (e.g., Austin and Colman 2007), which leads to an earlier onset of summer stratification and an increase in the total number of warming days each year. The link between increased surface temperatures and loss of ice cover is especially prevalent in the Laurentian Great Lakes, where rapidly warming surface temperatures (Austin and Colman 2008;Bartolai et al 2015;Zhong et al 2016;White et al 2018) have coincided with dramatic declines in ice coverage (> 70% since 1973: Wang et al 2012;Magnuson et al 2000). These changes have significant consequences for both surface dynamics (e.g., atmospheric heat and gas exchange: Matsumoto et al 2015) and ecosystem functions (e.g., primary production: Scavia and Fahnenstiel 1987), and they may be indicative of even more substantial changes below the surface.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling changes in ice dynamics and subsurface thermal structure in Lake Michigan-Huron between 1979 and 2021

et al. 2023

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The world’s largest lakes, including the Laurentian Great Lakes, have experienced significant surface warming and loss of ice cover over the last several decades. Although changing surface conditions have received substantial research interest, changes below the surface remain largely unexplored, despite their importance for turbulent mixing, nutrient cycling, and primary production. In this study, we investigate changes in subsurface thermal structure and timing in Lake Michigan-Huron related to ongoing climate warming. This work utilizes atmospheric reanalysis data to drive the Great Lakes Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (GL-FVCOM), providing three-dimensional hydrodynamic and ice simulations between 1979 and 2021. Results are used to analyze trends in ice and temperature dynamics, revealing significant changes in annually averaged ice cover (− 2.1– − 5.2%/decade), ice thickness (− 0.68 – − 2.0 cm/decade), surface temperature (+ 0.47– + 0.51 $$^\circ{\rm C}$$ ∘ C /decade), and bottom temperature (+ 0.26– + 0.29 $$^\circ{\rm C}$$ ∘ C /decade) over the last 40 years, especially in ecologically important bays (e.g., Green Bay, Saginaw Bay). Significant warming was observed at all depth layers (0–270 m), with warming trends in the epilimnion and hypolimnion that agreed well with recent analysis of observational data in Lake Michigan. Shifting stratification dynamics led to dramatic changes in modelled overturning behavior, and earlier spring turnover dates (− 2.2– − 7.5 days/decade) and later fall turnover dates (+ 2.5– + 6.3 days/decade) led to a net lengthening of the stratified period. This study presents one of the most comprehensive analyses of changes in Great Lakes subsurface temperatures to date, providing important context for future climate modelling and coastal management efforts in the region.

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A Long-Term Fine-Resolution Record of AVHRR Surface Temperatures for the Laurentian Great Lakes

Cited by 5 publications

References 53 publications

Seasonal overturn and stratification changes drive deep-water warming in one of Earth’s largest lakes

Seasonal overturn and stratification changes drive deep-water warming in one of Earth’s largest lakes

Amplification of Extreme Hot Temperatures over Recent Decades

Modeling changes in ice dynamics and subsurface thermal structure in Lake Michigan-Huron between 1979 and 2021

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