A long-term analysis of thundersnow events over the Marmara Region, Turkey

Yavuz, Veli; Lupo, Anthony R.; Fox, Neil I.; Deniz, Ali

doi:10.1007/s11069-022-05393-w

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Data sets were obtained from the Iowa State University Environmental Mesonet database (IOWA, 2023). The Mesonet database was also used by several previous studies on convective events [38][39][40]. The data have a half-hour frequency, except SPECI reports, which may increase the frequency of reports.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variability of Convective Events in Romania Based on METAR Data

Piticar,

Andrei,

Tudor

2024

Sustainability

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Convective weather, through its heavy showers, strong winds and hail, significantly impacts human activities, having the potential to inflict serious damage on social and environmental sectors. Limited research has been conducted on this phenomenon within Romanian territory, and currently there is no referenced climatological study primarily aimed at air traffic management users in this context. This study aims to assess the climatological aspects related to convective events based on sub-hourly observation data recorded at 17 airport weather stations throughout Romania during an 11-year period (2012–2022). The spatiotemporal distribution of convective events was analyzed based on occurrences of Cumulus Congestus (TCU) clouds, Cumulonimbus (CB) clouds, thunderstorms (TSs), heavy showers (+SHs), and hail (GR). With the data being extracted from meteorological aerodrome reports (METARs) and special meteorological aerodrome reports (SPECIs). Short-term trends were determined using Sen’s slope estimator, and statistical significance was assessed through the Mann–Kendall test. The main findings indicated that the highest occurrence of convective events is located over central and western Romania, with June emerging as the extreme month in terms of convective events, while the hourly distribution emphasizes that the highest frequency of convective events occurred in the afternoon. Trend analysis in TCU, CB, and TS show tendencies toward higher frequency of convective events while the results related to +SH and GR indicate a high variability across Romanian territory. Trend analysis disclosed more substantial changes in the TS variable. The results of this study bear potential significance for a broad spectrum of human activities and the management of natural environments.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variability of Convective Events in Romania Based on METAR Data

Piticar,

Andrei,

Tudor

2024

Sustainability

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“…Modifications in these indices were made for different regions (Charba, 1977;Peppler & Lamb, 1989), and the threshold values have been adjusted temporally and spatially (Miller et al, 1972;Prosser & Foster, 1966;Sadowski & Rieck, 1977). The Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Convective Inhibition (CIN), and Bulk Richardson Number (BRN) are atmospheric parameters that offer insights into atmospheric convection and wind shear conditions (Lucas et al, 1994;Weisman & Klemp, 1982;Yavuz et al, 2022b;Zhang, 2003). There are numerous studies in the literature that have utilized these indices for different regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance Analyzes of Thermodynamic Indices and Atmospheric Parameters in Thunderstorm and Non-thunderstorm Days in Istanbul, Turkey

Yavuz

2024

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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This study aims to analyze the thunderstorm (TS) events in the megacity Istanbul by using thermodynamic indices and atmospheric stability parameters for the period of 2001–2022. It was determined that TS events did not show any trend on an annual basis, mostly (%69) occurred in the warm season (May–September), and mostly (%93) lasted for a few hours (0–3 h). The thermodynamic indices and atmospheric stability parameters used in the study are Showalter Index (SI), Lifted Index (LI), Severe Weather Threat Index (SWEAT), K-Index (KI), Totals Totals Index (TTI), Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Convective Inhibition (CIN), and Bulk Richardson Number (BRN). Annual and seasonal analyzes of all indices and parameters were performed for TS and non-TS events. Significant differences were found in both average, maximum, and minimum values. The Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Miss Rate (MR), Critical Success Index (CIS), Hiedke Skill Score (HSS), and True Skill Score (TSS) were used to analyze the success of the threshold values presented in the literature in detecting TS events. Then, the seasonal successes of these threshold values were tested. It was observed that the performance of the selected indices varied across seasons. The highest predictive skill was generally observed during the summer season, with the POD value ranging between 0.58 and 0.97 and the TSS value varying between 0.32 and 0.57. Conversely, the lowest predictive skill was typically observed during the winter season, where the POD value ranged from 0.00 to 0.75 and the TSS value varied between 0.00 and 0.40. The ideal threshold values were determined for indices and parameters by increasing or decreasing the existing threshold values at certain rates. Success increases of up to 15% in skill scores for the proposed threshold values.

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“…These indices are based on the interpretation of various numerical results calculated from atmospheric soundings obtained from radiosondes. For example, In the detection of severe weather events (e.g., thunderstorm, hail, lightning, tornado, single/multi/super-cell), the measure of the instability of the atmosphere is determined by looking at these indices (Gray and Jacobson, 1977;Ratnam et al, 2013;Yavuz et al, 2022a;Yavuz et al 2022b). On the other hand, many stable atmospheric events (e.g., fog, haze, inversion, etc.)…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An analysis of atmospheric stability indices and parameters under air pollution conditions

Yavuz

2023

Environ Monit Assess

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The stability of the atmosphere plays an important role in changes in air pollutant concentrations. Stable atmospheric conditions cause pollutant concentrations to reach high values, which degrades the air quality in a particular region. This study aims to reveal the relationship between atmospheric stability indices/parameters (thermodynamic indices) and changes in air pollutant concentrations. Pollutant concentrations of PM 10 , PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO 2 , CO, and O 3 were statistically analyzed for a 10-year (2013-2022) period for nine air quality stations located in the megacity Istanbul. Based on national and international air quality standards, 145 episode days were determined for the days when these parameters exceeded the threshold values.Five stability indices (Showalter Index -SI, Lifted Index -LI, Severe Weather Index -SWEAT, K Index -KI, Totals Totals Index -TTI), and three stability parameters (Convective Available Potential Energy -CAPE, Convective Inhibition -CIN, Bulk Richardson Number -BRN) were used to determine the stability of the atmosphere for episode days. It has been found that in cases where air pollutant concentrations are high, the stability parameters reveal the stability of the atmosphere better than the stability indices. It was also found that there was at least one vertical inversion layer on 122 of the 145 episode days, these layers mostly (84%) occurred between the surface and 850 hPa levels, and the layer thicknesses were mostly between 0-250 m (84%).

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A long-term analysis of thundersnow events over the Marmara Region, Turkey

Cited by 8 publications

References 55 publications

Spatiotemporal Variability of Convective Events in Romania Based on METAR Data

Spatiotemporal Variability of Convective Events in Romania Based on METAR Data

Performance Analyzes of Thermodynamic Indices and Atmospheric Parameters in Thunderstorm and Non-thunderstorm Days in Istanbul, Turkey

An analysis of atmospheric stability indices and parameters under air pollution conditions

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