A local-regional scaling-invariant Bayesian GEV model for estimating rainfall IDF curves in a future climate

Lima, Carlos; Kwon, Hyun‐Han; Kim, Yong‐Tak

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.08.075

Cited by 50 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…This means that the existing hydrological steady-state law has been broken, and the rainstorm intensity formula relying on the assumption of stationary may underestimate the extreme rainfall events, which will bring unnecessary losses if applied to the design of urban drainage system (Khaliq et al 2006;Willems et al 2012;Forzieri et al 2018). In addition, some studies have shown that with the increase of research time, the deviation of nonstationary and stationary design values will be larger and larger (Agilan & Umamahesh 2016;Lima et al 2018;Hosseinzadehtalaei et al 2020). Therefore, it is necessary to explore the calculation method of nonstationary rainstorm intensity formula and its influence on urban drainage system simulation so as to provide theoretical basis for urban drainage system design.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Calculation method of short-duration rainstorm intensity formula considering nonstationarity of rainfall series: impacts on the simulation of urban drainage system

Liu

Wang

2021

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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The changing nature of the earth's climate and rapid urbanization lead to the change of rainfall characteristics in urban areas, the stability of rainfall series is destroyed and it is a difficult challenge to consider this change in urban drainage simulation. A generalized additive model (GAMLSS) with time as covariant was established to calculate and predict the design values of extreme rainstorm return period, and the nonstationary short-duration rainstorm intensity formula of three periods was fitted and compared with the stationary formula. The urban water simulation model and the Mike 21 two-dimensional surface flow model are coupled to simulate the urban flood under different formulas and different return periods. The results show that the nonstationary results are worse in the same period. In the 5-year return period rainfall–runoff simulation performance, the nonstationary inundation area is 18.5% more than the stationary, and inundation water is 23.5% more than the stationary. The nonstationary simulation results show higher inundation depth and slower flood recession process. These gaps will widen in the future, but they will become less significant as the return period increases. It can provide a reference for the study of flood control work and the design of existing drainage infrastructure in the region.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Calculation method of short-duration rainstorm intensity formula considering nonstationarity of rainfall series: impacts on the simulation of urban drainage system

Liu

Wang

2021

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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show abstract

“…This means that the existing hydrological steady-state law has been broken, and the rainstorm intensity formula relying on the assumption of stationarity may underestimate the extreme rainfall events, which will bring unnecessary losses if applied to the design of urban drainage system (Khaliq et al, 2006;Willems et al, 2012;Forzieri et al, 2018). In addition, some studies have shown that with the increase of research time, the deviation of non-stationary and stationary design values will be larger and larger (Agilan and Umamahesh,2016;Lima et al, 2018;Hosseinzadehtalaei et al, 2020). Therefore, it is necessary to explore the non-stationary rainstorm intensity formula and its impacts on simulation of urban drainage system to provide theoretical basis for urban drainage system design.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Calculation Method of Short Duration Rainstorm Intensity Formula Considering Non-Stationarity of Rainfall Series: Impacts on Simulation of Urban Drainage System

Liu

Wang

2021

Preprint

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The changing nature of the earth's climate and rapid urbanization lead to the change of rainfall characteristics in urban areas, and the stability of rainfall series is destroyed, it is a difficult challenge to consider this change in urban drainage simulation. A variety of methods are used to test the stationarity of annual maximum rainfall intensity series of Zhengzhou meteorological station from 1981 to 2010, and the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves of changing environment are fitted by GAMLSS model and further generalized into short duration rainstorm intensity formula. The 3-hour design rainstorm in different scenarios was used as the input of Mike Flood model to simulate the operation of the campus drainage system of Zhengzhou University. Results indicated that: The rainfall series is non-stationary and has an increasing trend. Although the parameters of the short duration rainstorm intensity formula have no fixed change rules, there are traces to follow in the design rainstorm. According to Mike Flood model, the non-stationary scenario provides a series of dangerous signals such as more flood volume, larger inundation area, higher flood depth and slower recession process. The flood volume of the non-stationary scenario is 23.5% more than that of the stationary scenario, and the inundated area is 18.5% more when the return period is 5 years. In the future, the difference is 34.0% and 24.6% respectively, and it can reach more than 50% when the return period is once in two years. We will discuss the non-stationarity and challenges brought about by changing environments.

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“…In this regard, a generalized linear model (GLM) and a four-parameter Beta (4P-Beta) distribution based downscaling model with a scaling relationship is used with model parameters estimated within a Bayesian framework. Recently, the Bayesian approach has been used in a wide range of hydrology studies (Haddad et al, 2012;Kwon, Brown & Lall 2008;Kwon et al, 2011;Liang et al, 2011;Lima et al, 2018;Lima & Lall, 2010;Viglione et al, 2013). The hybrid prediction model was validated through a cross-validatory experiment over South Korea.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Multiscale Precipitation Forecasting Framework: Linking Teleconnections and Climate Dipoles to Seasonal and 24‐hr Extreme Rainfall Prediction

Kim

Kwon

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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We develop a hybrid statistical forecasting model for the simultaneous season‐ahead forecasting of both seasonal rainfall and the 24‐hr maximum rainfall for the upcoming season, using predictors identified through the Shared Reciprocal Nearest Neighbor approach. The model uses a generalized linear regression and a four‐parameter Beta distribution model for downscaling extremes using the predictors that were identified. A cross‐validation experiment for the last four decades in both Han‐River and Geum‐River watersheds, South Korea was performed to test the efficacy of the model. The leave‐one‐out cross‐validated seasonal precipitation forecast demonstrates a correlation that ranges from 0.69–0.78 to 0.68–0.76 for the Han‐River and Geum‐River watershed, respectively. Similarly, for the 24‐hr maximum rainfalls in the upcoming season, the cross‐validated correlations between the predicted and the observed values range from 0.67–0.73 to 0.50–0.63, for the two river basins. A discussion of the potential causes of the skill is offered.

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A local-regional scaling-invariant Bayesian GEV model for estimating rainfall IDF curves in a future climate

Cited by 50 publications

References 38 publications

Calculation method of short-duration rainstorm intensity formula considering nonstationarity of rainfall series: impacts on the simulation of urban drainage system

Calculation method of short-duration rainstorm intensity formula considering nonstationarity of rainfall series: impacts on the simulation of urban drainage system

Calculation Method of Short Duration Rainstorm Intensity Formula Considering Non-Stationarity of Rainfall Series: Impacts on Simulation of Urban Drainage System

A Multiscale Precipitation Forecasting Framework: Linking Teleconnections and Climate Dipoles to Seasonal and 24‐hr Extreme Rainfall Prediction

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