Humans significantly influence geographic patterns of biological
invasions, creating conditions for species to overcome biogeographic
barriers and colonize new areas. In the eastern United States, forested
landscapes containing eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) are under
threat by the invasive hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae). Although
several studies have shown the negative effects of adelgid invasion in
local bird communities, its regional impacts have not yet been
quantified. Using broad-scale spatial (entire eastern US range of
hemlock) and temporal (>40 years of bird monitoring data)
databases, we built spatial auto-regressive generalized mixed linear
models to estimate immediate and long-term population effects of adelgid
infestation on population trends of fourteen bird species. We also
determined how winter temperature interacted with adelgid infestation to
affect population trends. We selected the best models using WAIC, and
validated model performance and power using Monte Carlo simulation,
permutation tests, and sensitivity analysis. For all but one species,
the best model included the effects of adelgid infestation on abundance
trends. We observed a > 30% decline for two
hemlock-associates species after infestation: the Blackburnian warbler,
and the Hermit thrush. Declines were greater in the warmest part of
their ranges. In contrast, no control species showed similar declines.
Our results demonstrate that birds locally associated with hemlock
habitat, when evaluated at a broad spatiotemporal scale, also decline in
abundance following infestation. At the same time, declines are not
universal and are dampened as compared to local studies suggesting that
spatial heterogeneity buffers demographic decline. We also found that
cold winters are associated with smaller bird population declines,
suggesting that rising winter temperatures due to climate change might
remove this environmental barrier. Despite the difficulties of
understanding and connecting landscape-scale processes with those at
finer scales, it is critical to evaluate processes that govern
biodiversity distribution from a regional perspective.