A Late Mesolithic Forager Dispersal Caused Pre‐agricultural Demographic Transition in Norway

Abstract

Summary Population growth has always played a key role in human mobility, even before the age of farming and husbandry. This paper explores population dynamics among early Holocene (∼9500–1700 cal BCE) hunter‐fisher‐gatherers in Southern Norway, focusing in particular on the Mesolithic‐Neolithic transition (4000/3900 cal BCE). Radiocarbon dates are calibrated and turned into summed probability distributions (SPDs). A heuristic linear method is used to calculate annual growth rates from the SPDs. Observed fluctuations in the SPDs are tested for significance by applying a Monte Carlo‐based simulation method. The paper finds evidence of a steady growth rate from the Boreal period until a sudden population trough at ∼4330–4300 cal BCE. The trough coincides with indications from the archaeological record of a dispersal of hunter‐fisher‐gatherers from Southern Scandinavia to Norway. The dispersal was likely an effect of lowered habitat suitability and social stress caused by population pressure among Southern Scandinavian hunter‐fisher‐gatherers. In Southern Norway, the proxy data show that the trough enabled a subsequent ‘boom’ in population and the emergence of regional technological innovations that define the Mesolithic‐Neolithic transition.

Living through changing climates: Temperature and seasonality correlate with population fluctuations among Holocene hunter-fisher-gatherers on the west coast of Norway

“…12), thus there is no reason to suspect any widespread ecosystem collapse. In light of this, Nielsen (2021) has argued for migrating Ertebølle groups as a cause for this population decline. While intriguing as an hypothesis, to infer causality requires exhaustive statistical testing of several competing sources of evidence (Kavanagh et al, 2018; Tallavaara et al, 2018), neither of which has been adequately carried out in Western Norway, nor peripheral areas for that matter (Nielsen, 2021).…”

“…In light of this, Nielsen (2021) has argued for migrating Ertebølle groups as a cause for this population decline. While intriguing as an hypothesis, to infer causality requires exhaustive statistical testing of several competing sources of evidence (Kavanagh et al, 2018; Tallavaara et al, 2018), neither of which has been adequately carried out in Western Norway, nor peripheral areas for that matter (Nielsen, 2021). Methodological adequacy aside, technological traces of such a potential migration pulse, such as the apperance of transverse arrow heads along the west coast of Norway (Bjerck and Åstveit, 2008) were short-lived and went extinct in parallel to more long-standing cultural traits, such as fishhooks, soapstone sinkers, polished and pecked chubby adzes, conical microblade cores, slotted-bone points, and the brief appearance and sudden disappearance of rock art (Hjelle and Lødøen, 2017; Lødøen, 2014).…”

“…Unlike eastern Norway (Nielsen, 2021), Western Norway did not experience a population boom at the Early Neolithic transition (Bergsvik et al, 2021). Instead, decreasing annual mean temperatures and increasing seasonality co-occurred with an inflection point towards population stability with three peaks in population growth followed by a decline throughout the remainder of the Neolithic (Figure 5).…”

“…While unquestionably important and laudable, pioneer work by Cullberg (1975), Welinder (1979) and Olsen and Alsaker (1984) pale in comparison to the numerous palaeodemographic studies undertaken within just the last decade. This strong trend has arguably been driven by increasing availability of large archaeological data sets and an increased use of advanced computational approaches to modelling (Apel et al, 2018; Bergsvik et al, 2021; Hinz et al, 2012; Lundström and Riede, 2019; Lundström et al, 2021; Manninen et al, 2023; Nielsen, 2021; Nielsen et al, 2019; Riede, 2009; Solheim, 2021; Solheim and Persson, 2018; Tallavaara and Pesonen, 2020; Tallavaara et al, 2015; Tallavaara and Seppä, 2012). What follows is in no way intended to detract from all previous work, but I nonetheless wish to highlight some significant methodological shortcomings that has prompted the analysis put forward in this paper.…”