A large-scale view of marine heatwaves revealed by archetype analysis

Chapman, Christopher; Monselesan, Didier; Risbey, James S.; Feng, Ming; Sloyan, Bernadette M.

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-35493-x

Cited by 14 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…More recently, Chapman et al (2022) applied an archetype analysis of MHW phenomena in the Australasian region to identify large-scale patterns that underly these extrema. They then connect these archetypes to teleconnection patterns of atmospheric and ocean surface modes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The rapid rise of severe marine heat wave systems

Prochaska

Beaulieu

Giamalaki

2023

Environ. Res.: Climate

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We introduce a new methodology to study marine heat waves, extreme events in the sea surface temperature(SST) of the global ocean. Motivated by previously large and impactful marine heat waves and by theoretical expectation that the dominant heating processes coherently affect large regions of the ocean, we introduce a methodology from computer vision to construct marine heat wave systems (MWHSs) -- thecollation of SST extrema in dimensions of area and time. We identify \nmhws~MHWSs in the 37~yearperiod (1983-2019) of daily SST records and find that the duration \tdur\ (days), maximum area \maxa\ (km$^2$), andtotal ``volume'' \nvox\ (days km$^2$) for the majority of MHWSs are well-described by power-law distributions: $\tdur^{-3}, \, \maxa^{-2}$ and $\nvox^{-2}$. These characteristics confirm SST extrema exhibit strong spatial coherence that define the formationand evolution of marine heat waves. Furthermore, the most \classc\ MHWSs deviate from these power-laws and are the dominantmanifestation of marine heat waves: extrema in ocean heating are driven by the $\sim 200$ systems with largest area andduration. We further demonstrate that the previously purported rise in the incidence of marine heat wave events over the past decade is only significant in these \classc\ systems. A change point analysis reveals a rapid increase in days under a severe MHW in most regions of the global ocean over the period of 2000-2005. Understanding the origin and impacts of marine heat waves in the current and future ocean, therefore, should focus on the production and evolution of the largest-scale and longest-duration heating phenomena.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The rapid rise of severe marine heat wave systems

Prochaska

Beaulieu

Giamalaki

2023

Environ. Res.: Climate

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“…The AA algorithm has also been implemented in R, see [ 16 ]. See the paper [ 12 ] for a good explanation of the geometrical interpretation of the archetypes as points on the convex hull of the data, and a new algorithm for computing archetypes based on differential geometry (the manifold-based algorithm). Archetypes are presented here as color mapped counties within a state map, and were created with GeoPandas (GeoPandas.org).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Archetypal analysis of COVID-19 in Montana, USA, March 13, 2020 to April 26, 2022

Stone,

Coombs,

Landguth

2024

PLoS ONE

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Infectious disease data can often involve complex spatial patterns intermixed with temporal trends. Archetypal Analysis is a method to mine complex spatio-temporal data, and can be used to discover the dynamics of spatial patterns. The application of Archetypal Analysis to epidemiological data is relatively new, and here we present one of the first applications on COVID-19 data from March 13, 2020 to April 26, 2022, for the counties of Montana, USA. We present three views of the data set decomposed with Archetypal Analysis. First, we evaluate the entire 56 county data set. Second, we use a mutual information calculation to remove counties whose dynamics are mainly independent from the other counties, reducing the set to 17 counties. Finally, we analyze the top ten counties in terms of population size to focus on the dynamics in the large cities in the state. For each data set, we analyze four significant disease outbreaks across Montana. Archetypal Analysis uncovers distinct spatial patterns for each outbreak and demonstrates that each has a unique trajectory across the state.

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“…The MHW in the ECS began on June 30, peaked on July 16 at maximum magnitude of over 2.84 • C above the daily climatology, and lasted approximately 2 months, ending in early September. This unprecedented persistence of the MHW might be biased due to the area-averaged mean, since it is known that identifying MHWs is vulnerable to resolution limits, which might result in an overestimation of its duration [44,45]. Therefore, the probability distribution function on the duration of the MHWs for each grid is shown in figure 2(d).…”

Section: (Figure 1(b))mentioning

confidence: 99%

The record-breaking 2022 long-lasting marine heatwaves in the East China Sea

Kim

Chu

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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In 2022, record-breaking long-lasting marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the East China Sea (ECS), which persisted for 62 days during boreal summer. This exceeded the average MHWs duration of 10 days by a factor of 6. In addition, 2022 was also recorded as a year of many extreme events throughout Asia, such as summer floods in China and Pakistan, droughts and extreme heat in Europe, raising the question of whether they were caused by a “triple-dip” La Niña, which has persisted since September 2020. Here we examine the key local and remote processes that led to the 2022 MHWs in the ECS using mixed-layer heat budget analysis. During the onset of the MHWs, a salinity-stratified shallow mixed-layer due to the large river discharge from the Yangtze-Huaihe River floods in June enhanced warm ocean temperature in the ECS. Simultaneously, an anomalous anticyclone maintained by the stationary Rossby wave, which is generated by vorticity forcings in mid-latitudes and thermal forcing in Pakistan, settled in the corresponding region and led to the long-lasting MHWs until Typhoon Hinnamnor began to dissipate the wave in early September. This study improves our understanding of the physical mechanism of flood-related MHWs that have increased with recent climate change.

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A large-scale view of marine heatwaves revealed by archetype analysis

Cited by 14 publications

References 69 publications

The rapid rise of severe marine heat wave systems

The rapid rise of severe marine heat wave systems

Archetypal analysis of COVID-19 in Montana, USA, March 13, 2020 to April 26, 2022

The record-breaking 2022 long-lasting marine heatwaves in the East China Sea

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