A Landscape-Level Model for Ecosystem Restoration in the San Francisco Estuary and Its Watershed

Kimmerer, Wim; Murphy, Dennis D.; Angermeier, Paul L.

doi:10.15447/sfews.2005v3iss1art4

Cited by 15 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…We found it equally instructive to articulate what we did versus did not know, and models were valuable heuristic tools that framed subsequent data collection. Landscape-scale conceptual models can be especially helpful in illustrating linkages among remote ecosystem components, such as those that might be connected via fish migration [88]. When developing conceptual models, we suggest being humble and skeptical about what one "knows"; several of our initial presumptions at the outset of the RRFRP were eventually refuted by empirical evidence.…”

Section: Lesson 2: Develop Adaptable Conceptual and Analytical Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Long-Term Study of Ecological Impacts of River Channelization on the Population of an Endangered Fish: Lessons Learned for Assessment and Restoration

Roberts

Anderson

Angermeier

2016

Water

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Projects to assess environmental impact or restoration success in rivers focus on project-specific questions but can also provide valuable insights for future projects. Both restoration actions and impact assessments can become "adaptive" by using the knowledge gained from long-term monitoring and analysis to revise the actions, monitoring, conceptual model, or interpretation of findings so that subsequent actions or assessments are better informed. Assessments of impact or restoration success are especially challenging when the indicators of interest are imperiled species and/or the impacts being addressed are complex. From 1997 to 2015, we worked closely with two federal agencies to monitor habitat availability for and population density of Roanoke logperch (Percina rex), an endangered fish, in a 24-km-long segment of the upper Roanoke River, VA. We primarily used a Before-After-Control-Impact analytical framework to assess potential impacts of a river channelization project on the P. rex population. In this paper, we summarize how our extensive monitoring facilitated the evolution of our (a) conceptual understanding of the ecosystem and fish population dynamics; (b) choices of ecological indicators and analytical tools; and (c) conclusions regarding the magnitude, mechanisms, and significance of observed impacts. Our experience with this case study taught us important lessons about how to adaptively develop and conduct a monitoring program, which we believe are broadly applicable to assessments of environmental impact and restoration success in other rivers. In particular, we learned that (a) pre-treatment planning can enhance monitoring effectiveness, help avoid unforeseen pitfalls, and lead to more robust conclusions; (b) developing adaptable conceptual and analytical models early was crucial to organizing our knowledge, guiding our study design, and analyzing our data; (c) catchment-wide processes that we did not monitor, or initially consider, had profound implications for interpreting our findings; and (d) using multiple analytical frameworks, with varying assumptions, led to clearer interpretation of findings than the use of a single framework alone. Broader integration of these guiding principles into monitoring studies, though potentially challenging, could lead to more scientifically defensible assessments of project effects.

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Section: Lesson 2: Develop Adaptable Conceptual and Analytical Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Long-Term Study of Ecological Impacts of River Channelization on the Population of an Endangered Fish: Lessons Learned for Assessment and Restoration

Roberts

Anderson

Angermeier

2016

Water

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“…https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2018v16iss3art6 landscape conversion of wetlands and riparian forests for agriculture and urban uses (Kimmerer et al 2005), channel modifications, reservoir construction, and operation of large water projects to export water to central and southern California. Other anthropogenic stressors include introduction of invasive species (Kimmerer 2004), toxicity from contaminants (Kuivila and Foe 1995), wastewater discharges (Luoma et al 2015), and changes in temperature, sea level, and precipitation patterns from climate change (Cloern et al 2011).…”

Section: Research a Comparison Of Outflow And Salt Intrusion In The Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparison of Outflow and Salt Intrusion in the Pre-Development and Contemporary San Francisco Estuary

Gross¹,

Hutton²,

Draper³

2018

SFEWS

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The San Francisco Estuary and its upstream watershed have been highly altered by human development following the California Gold Rush in the mid-19th century. In this paper, we explore the inter-and intra-annual variability of freshwater flow to this estuary and the resulting salt intrusion under scenarios that represent pre-development and contemporary conditions. To place this comparison in context with the advent of systematic and accurate flow and salinity measurements in the estuary, we consider an additional "pre-project" scenario that represents early 20th-century water management (circa 1920), after major flood control and reclamation but before the introduction of large water storage, diversion, and export operations. We use an observed climate record that spans 82 years to compare freshwater flow associated with the scenarios' landscape and water use characteristics. Using published relationships between flow and salt intrusion length developed from three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling, we evaluate the effect of these flow alterations as well as estuarine geometry modifications and historically observed sea level rise on salt intrusion. We conclude that the predevelopment estuary exhibited a more seasonally variable salinity regime, resulting from a more variable inflow regime from the upstream watershed.

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“…The San Francisco Estuary is an archetype of a stressed estuarine system (Kimmerer et al 2005a). The social, economic, and ecological effects of freshwater flows and diversions throughout the San Francisco Estuary have received much attention.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of pelagic species decline in the upper San Francisco Estuary using multivariate autoregressive modeling (MAR)

Nally

Thomson

Kimmerer

et al. 2010

Ecological Applications

Self Cite

142

133

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Four species of pelagic fish of particular management concern in the upper San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, have declined precipitously since ca. 2002: delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), longfin smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys), striped bass (Morone saxatilis), and threadfin shad (Dorosoma petenense). The estuary has been monitored since the late 1960s with extensive collection of data on the fishes, their pelagic prey, phytoplankton biomass, invasive species, and physical factors. We used multivariate autoregressive (MAR) modeling to discern the main factors responsible for the declines. An expert-elicited model was built to describe the system. Fifty-four relationships were built into the model, only one of which was of uncertain direction a priori. Twenty-eight of the proposed relationships were strongly supported by or consistent with the data, while 26 were close to zero (not supported by the data but not contrary to expectations). The position of the 2 per thousand isohaline (a measure of the physical response of the estuary to freshwater flow) and increased water clarity over the period of analyses were two factors affecting multiple declining taxa (including fishes and the fishes' main zooplankton prey): Our results were relatively robust with respect to the form of stock-recruitment model used and to inclusion of subsidiary covariates but may be enhanced by using detailed state-space models that describe more fully the life-history dynamics of the declining species.

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A Landscape-Level Model for Ecosystem Restoration in the San Francisco Estuary and Its Watershed

Cited by 15 publications

References 61 publications

A Long-Term Study of Ecological Impacts of River Channelization on the Population of an Endangered Fish: Lessons Learned for Assessment and Restoration

A Long-Term Study of Ecological Impacts of River Channelization on the Population of an Endangered Fish: Lessons Learned for Assessment and Restoration

A Comparison of Outflow and Salt Intrusion in the Pre-Development and Contemporary San Francisco Estuary

Analysis of pelagic species decline in the upper San Francisco Estuary using multivariate autoregressive modeling (MAR)

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