A Kidney Graft Survival Calculator that Accounts for Mismatches in Age, Sex, HLA, and Body Size

Abstract

Background and objectives Outcomes for transplants from living unrelated donors are of particular interest in kidney paired donation (KPD) programs where exchanges can be arranged between incompatible donor-recipient pairs or chains created from nondirected/altruistic donors.Design, setting, participants, & measurements Using Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data, we analyzed 232,705 recipients of kidney-alone transplants from 1998 to 2012. Graft failure rates were estimated using Cox models for recipients of kidney transplants from living unrelated, living related, and deceased donors. Models were adjusted for year of transplant and donor and recipient characteristics, with particular attention to mismatches in age, sex, human leukocyte antigens (HLA), body size, and weight.Results The dependence of graft failure on increasing donor age was less pronounced for living-donor than for deceased-donor transplants. Male donor-to-male recipient transplants had lower graft failure, particularly better than female to male (5%-13% lower risk). HLA mismatch was important in all donor types. Obesity of both the recipient (8%-18% higher risk) and donor (5%-11% higher risk) was associated with higher graft loss, as were donor-recipient weight ratios of ,75%, compared with transplants where both parties were of similar weight (9%-12% higher risk). These models are used to create a calculator of estimated graft survival for living donors.Conclusions This calculator provides useful information to donors, candidates, and physicians of estimated outcomes and potentially in allowing candidates to choose among several living donors. It may also help inform candidates with compatible donors on the advisability of joining a KPD program.

The economic burden of kidney graft failure in the United States

“…Furthermore, we found that the burden of graft failure tends to be largest in the youngest age‐at‐transplantation quartile, decreasing with each quartile. This is consistent with prior research that has shown that the probability of graft failure is usually higher in younger kidney transplant recipients than in older recipients . We also found that the burden of graft failure is larger for living donor patients compared to all kidney transplant recipients, as transition probabilities estimated using SRTR data (Figure S4A,B) indicated that living donor patients were more likely to receive re‐transplants after graft failure, thus incurring additional costs in the event of graft failure.…”

Does HLA matching matter in the modern era of renal transplantation?

“…spousal donation). An online calculator based on the SRTR data is available for estimating survival times where multiple LD options are available [56]. The key to appreciating waiting times is knowing the matchability score of the patient and understanding the local kidney offering scheme.…”

Preventive Nephrology: The Role of Obesity in Different Stages of Chronic Kidney Disease

“…Cumulate evidence from numerous observational studies [33]. Thus, recently published calculators for kidney graft survival include BMI in the risk model [34]. As a consequence, loss of body weight is recommended in renal transplant candidates [34,35].…”

“…Thus, recently published calculators for kidney graft survival include BMI in the risk model [34]. As a consequence, loss of body weight is recommended in renal transplant candidates [34,35]. Obviously, many patients are unable to achieve significant weight loss from conventional measurements.…”