A influência política dos banqueiros na condução da política monetária brasileira durante o regime de alta inflação (1975-1994)

Abstract

This work has the purpose to demonstrate the political influence of the financial entrepreneurs in the Brazilian monetary policy administration. Supported by theoretical perspectives on the state, the verification of this influence was guided by the following approaches: Elitist, Pluralist, Rational Choice, Marxist and Neoinstitutionalist. Each with its own methodologies, issues and underlying assumptions different from the main issue of this work, but assisted in their resolution. The empirical results of the various models formulated according to each approach showed similar results, problems of serial autocorrelation due to poor specification (omitted variables) or coefficients of determination with extremely low values, showing little influence of politics on monetary policy administration. Although these results refute the original hypothesis that bankers have a significant influence on monetary policy in Brazil, also reveal the difficulty to find any political influence over the issue that responds strongly to cyclical events. Not satisfied with the result presented by traditional approaches, it was decided to seek a more appropriate approach to the political analysis of economic policy, which could again highlighted the political pressure of the private financial sector in the conduct of monetary policy. Like other econometric models tested, the model-based approach Havrilesky (1995) showed no relevance to the relationship between the signals preferably by private bankers with the interest rate. Nevertheless, the survey revealed these signs up key source for the resolution of the issues proposed by Wooley (1994) that helped to describe the process of political pressure from the private financial sector. The history of monetary policies demonstrated the existence of formal institutional and political pressure by SFP, in which the demands were met to the extent that they were consistent with the current monetary policy.