A Hybrid Tourism Demand Forecasting Model Based on Fuzzy Times Series

Abstract

Abstract. In previous studies, time series model has been the most common method and fuzzy time series model is an improvement on time series model. However, the accuracy in fuzzy time series model has been inevitably affected by interval length and the partitioning method for formulating effective interval can be very difficult. In addition to time series model, the grey model has also been widely studied, but it may have bad curve-fitting effects when data show great randomness. Therefore, both fuzzy time series model and grey model have problems in accuracy for forecasting tourism flow. Based on fuzzy time series model and grey model, this paper proposed a hybrid model which has been optimized by entropy and Markov model. In this hybrid model, the weight is calculated by entropy method which has been used to balance the performance of two single models. Markov model with its stable property is used for processing data sequence with large fluctuation. The result of the experiment clearly shows that this proposed hybrid model optimized the interval partition and therefore ensured the prediction accuracy.

Smart Camera Traffic for Congestion using Fuzzy Methods Based on Serious Game

“…Dalam penelitian ini, yaitu simulasi smart kamera untuk mengurai titik kemacetan menggunakan metode fuzzy dan engine unity 3D, penulis menggunakan fuzzy logic untuk menghasilkan jumlah detik lampu hijau yang lebih dinamis sesuai kepadatan kendaraan yang ada pada suatu simpang jalan dibantu dengan kamera yang terhubung dengan lampu merah [2]. Metode fuzzy dipilih karena banyak sekali kelebihan yang cocok untuk kasus ini, yaitu metode fuzzy yang bersifat intuitif [3]- [5], dan mencakup bidang yang luas seperti kesesuaian dengan proses input informasi manusia dan melakukan analisis lingkungan [6]- [8], selain itu juga metode fuzzy ini memiliki output yang dinamis [2]- [4], [9].…”

The Prediction Of Tourist Visiting With Average Based Fuzzy Time Series Method

“…The Average Based Fuzzy Time Series method has been widely used as a tool to provide predictions in various purposes. For example the use of method is forecasting inbound tourism demand to Istanbul [1], to the tourism demand forecasting in China [2], forecasting tourist arrivals [3] and many more [4], [5]. The method in this study is Based Fuzzy Time Series which is a simple calculation method that has a simple structure.…”