A hybrid model to assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow for an ungauged mountainous basin

Wang, Chong; Xu, Jiang; Chen, Yaning; Bai, Lei; Chen, Zhongsheng

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3775-x

Cited by 32 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…the lake from the north-east. The present-day regional climate is temperate continental (Wang et al, 2017) and dominated by the interaction between the Siberian anticyclonic circulation and the mid-latitude Westerlies (Aizen et al, 1997;Lauterbach et al, 2014). Owing to the high mountain ranges of the Tian Shan that prevent the transport of moisture, rainfall is reduced, especially in January and February (Aizen et al, 1995(Aizen et al, , 2001.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Biomolecular Evidence of Early Human Occupation of a High-Altitude Site in Western Central Asia During the Holocene

et al. 2020

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Reconstructions of early human occupation of high-altitude sites in Central Asia and possible migration routes during the Holocene are limited due to restricted archeological sample material. Consequently, there is a growing interest in alternative approaches to investigate past anthropogenic activity in this area. In this study, fecal biomarkers preserved in lake sediments from Lake Chatyr Kol (Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan) were analyzed to reconstruct the local presence of humans and pastoral animals in this lowhuman-impact area in the past. Spanning the last ∼11,700 years, this high-altitude site (∼3,500 m above sea level) provides a continuous record of human occupancy in Western Central Asia. An early increase of human presence in the area during the mid-Holocene is marked by a sharp peak of the human fecal sterol coprostanol and its epimer epicoprostanol in the sediments. An associated increase in 5β-stigmastanol, a fecal biomarker deriving from herbivores indicates a human occupancy that most probably largely depended upon livestock. However, sterol profiles show that grazing animals had already occupied the catchment area of Lake Chatyr Kol before and also after a significant presence of humans. The biomarker evidence in this study demonstrates an early presence of humans in a high-altitude site in Central Asia at ∼5,900-4,000 a BP. Dry environmental conditions during this period likely made high altitude regions more accessible. Moreover, our results help to understand human migration in Western Central Asia during the early and mid-Holocene as part of a prehistoric Silk Road territory.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Biomolecular Evidence of Early Human Occupation of a High-Altitude Site in Western Central Asia During the Holocene

et al. 2020

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, traditional precipitation data usually come from meteorological stations and rely heavily on observation data [12]. A complex geographical environment, limited meteorological stations, and sparse observation data have made it hard to further investigate the variation of precipitation in Northwest China [2,12]. High mountains and basins widely distribute in Northwest China, which constitutes this particular natural unit with characteristics of the three significant ecosystems of mountain, oasis, and desert [13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Its vast area, complicated geographical environment, and rare observation data make it difficult for people to deeply understand the temporal and spatial variation of precipitation of the data-scarce inland river basins in Northwest China. For the data-scarce inland river basins in Northwest China with complicated terrain and sparse meteorological stations, it is convenient to obtain precipitation data from Earth system data products [12]. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-a joint mission of NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) and JAXA (Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency) which was launched in 1997 to study precipitation and climate change-has good research potential [14,15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies have established the relationships between precipitation, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and topography information by linear regression or polynomial regression to achieve downscaling precipitation [18,[25][26][27][28]. However, the relationships between precipitation and topography information are not just linear, especially in Northwest China [12,25,29]. The downscaling results of Heihe river basin of Northwest China suggested that the downscaling simulation of quadratic polynomial regression is closer to the observed precipitation [25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Downscaling Precipitation in the Data-Scarce Inland River Basin of Northwest China Based on Earth System Data Products

Zuo

Chen

et al. 2019

Atmosphere

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Precipitation is a key climatic variable that connects the processes of atmosphere and land surface, and it plays a leading role in the water cycle. However, the vast area of Northwest China, its complex geographical environment, and its scarce observation data make it difficult to deeply understand the temporal and spatial variation of precipitation. This paper establishes a statistical downscaling model to downscale the monthly precipitation in the inland river basin of Northwest China with the Tarim River Basin (TRB) as a typical representation. This method combines polynomial regression and machine learning, and it uses the batch gradient descent (BGD) algorithm to train the regression model. We downscale the monthly precipitation and obtain a dataset from January 2001 to December 2017 with a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km. The results show that the downscaling model presents a good performance in precipitation simulation with a high resolution, and it is more effective than ordinary polynomial regression. We also investigate the temporal and spatial variations of precipitation in the TRB based on the downscaling dataset. Analyses illustrate that the annual precipitation in the southern foothills of the Tianshan Mountains and the North Kunlun Mountains showed a significant upward trend during the study periods, while the annual precipitation in the central plains presented a significant downward trend.

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Development of high‐resolution monthly precipitation datasets for geomorphological applications in the Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2050

Fan,

Xu,

Chen

et al. 2024

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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Precipitation has a fundamental influence on landscape evolution and erosion rates. Accurate predictions of precipitation changes are crucial for landscape evolution modelling and erosion modelling. The Tianshan Mountains are known as the ‘Water Tower in Central Asia’, where precipitation is the main water supply for the surrounding lakes and rivers and also supports the population and economic development in the plain areas. This study developed a global climate model (GCM) and digital elevation model (DEM)‐based downscaling method and simulated high‐resolution monthly precipitation in Tianshan from 2000 to 2050, with a resolution of 90 m. The datasets developed from 30 surface observation stations had a high degree of precision and simulated the precipitation processes well in the historical period. The simulation results indicated that precipitation will increase at a rate of 11 mm/decade under the SSP245 scenario and 5 mm/decade under the RCP4.5 scenario from 2022 to 2050. Spatially, precipitation was projected to increase in the central and eastern regions and decrease in the western region. In the Kaidu, Urumqi and Manas river basins in the central Tianshan Mountains, precipitation was projected to increase at a rate of 20 mm/decade. The datasets developed here have important theoretical and practical implications for water resource management, and sustainable development in Central Asia.

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A hybrid model to assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow for an ungauged mountainous basin

Cited by 32 publications

References 44 publications

Biomolecular Evidence of Early Human Occupation of a High-Altitude Site in Western Central Asia During the Holocene

Biomolecular Evidence of Early Human Occupation of a High-Altitude Site in Western Central Asia During the Holocene

Downscaling Precipitation in the Data-Scarce Inland River Basin of Northwest China Based on Earth System Data Products

Development of high‐resolution monthly precipitation datasets for geomorphological applications in the Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2050

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