A hybrid deep learning model to forecast air quality data based on COVID-19 outbreak in Mashhad, Iran

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak has led to some lockdowns and changed human mobility and lifestyle in this country. Mashhad, one of the most polluted cities in Iran has experienced critical air pollution conditions in recent years. In the present study, the potential relationships between air quality conditions (such as popular index and criteria air pollutant concentration) and COVID-19 cases and deaths were investigated in Mashhad, Iran. To do that, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based hybrid deep learning architecture was implemented on AQI, meteorological data (such as temperature, sea level pressure, dew points, and wind speed), traffic index and impact number of death, and active cases COVID-19 from March 2019 to March 2022 in Mashhad. The results reveal the LSTM model could predict the AQI accurately. The lower error between the real and predicted AQI, including MSE, MSLE, and MAE is 0.0153, 0.0058, and 0.1043, respectively. Also, the cosine similarity between predicted AQI and real amounts of it is 1. Moreover, in the first peak of the pandemic (Aug 2021), we have the minimum amount of AQI. Meanwhile, by increasing the number of active cases and death and by starting lockdown, because the traffic is decreased, the air quality is good and the amount of AQI related to PM2.5 is 54.68. Furthermore, the decrease the active cases and death in pandemic causes a significant increase in AQI, which is 123.52 in Nov 2021, due to a decline in lockdowns, resumption of human activities, and probable temperature inversions.