A hybrid-choice latent-class model for the analysis of the effects of weather on cycling demand

Abstract

In this paper we analyze demand for cycling using a discrete choice model with latent variables and a discrete heterogeneity distribution for the taste parameters. More specifically, we use a hybrid choice model where latent variables not only enter into utility but also inform assignment to latent classes. Using a discrete choice experiment we analyze the effects of weather (temperature, rain, and snow), cycling time, slope, cycling facilities (bike lanes), and traffic on cycling decisions by members of Cornell University (in an area with cold and snowy winters and hilly topography). We show that cyclists can be separated into two segments based on a latent factor that summarizes cycling skills and experience. Specifically, cyclists with more skills and experience are less affected by adverse weather conditions. By deriving the median of the ratio of the marginal rate of substitution for the two classes, we show that rain deters cyclists with lower skills from bicycling 2.5 times more strongly than those with better cycling skills. The median effects also show that snow is almost 4 times more deterrent to the class of less experienced cyclists. We also model the effect of external restrictions (accidents, crime, mechanical problems) and physical condition as latent factors affecting cycling choices.

Providing quantified evidence to policy makers for promoting bike-sharing in heavily air-polluted cities: A mode choice model and policy simulation for Taiyuan-China

“…Some researchers incorporated different weather conditions (e.g. sunny, rain or snow) in their mode choice models (Daito and Chen, 2013;Kamargianni, 2015), while others also accounted for temperature impact (Parkin et al, 2008;Saneinejad et al, 2012;Motoaki and Daziano, 2015;De Chardon et al, 2017). In general, these studies came to similar conclusions; namely that adverse weather conditions and colder temperature would significantly discourage travelers from cycling.…”

“…Many studies also analyzed the impact of topography. In particular, steeper roads would significantly discourage the choice of bicycle (Waldman, 1977;Rietveld and Daniel, 2004;Parkin et al, 2008;Mateo-Babiano et al, 2016;De Chardon et al, 2017), although Motoaki and Daziano (2015) argued that the impact of hills on the cycling route choice heavily depended on the fitness of cyclist. Additionally, the effect of air pollution has been studied, but, to our knowledge, among the great number of studies for developed countries, only Zahran et al (2008) covered this effect via a cross-sectional analysis at the US county level and found pollution could decrease the number of cycling commuters on the road.…”

Estimation of crowding discomfort in public transport: Results from Santiago de Chile

“…Other studies have also used images (2D diagrams and photos) to describe crowding levels. Use of images has shown to inuence the perception of attributes of the alternatives on stated preferences surveys (Rizzi et al, 2012) and facilitates the description of complex choice scenarios, where an exhaustive text-based description of the attributes would over-complicate the choice task (Motoaki and Daziano, 2015;Hurtubia et al, 2015). However, some evidence indicates that the form of representation used to describe single attributes has no eect on the perception of the respondent (Arentze et al, 2003).…”

The Impact of Perception toward the Built Environment in Airport Access Mode Choice Using Hybrid Choice Modeling

“…Many studies considered the objective effects of a BE, but there is little work available that focused on attitudinal and perceptional behavior toward the BE [1,4,5]. There are excellent studies that capture psychometrical variables affecting active travel preferences, such as walking and cycling [6][7][8][9][10], but little research exists that analyzes the psychometric effects of BE, particularly the influence of perceptions toward BE on access to the airport. Therefore, this study investigated the simultaneous effects of perception toward BE and airport access mode choice.…”