A hybrid approach for integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic simulation of baseflow with Iterative Ensemble Smoother

Delottier, Hugo; Therrien, René; Young, Nathan L.; Paradis, Daniel

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127406

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…Improving these fits would require the introduction of sub‐zone heterogeneity. This could be achieved using the Iterative Ensemble Smoother (IES) method of White (2018), which theoretically enables a very large number of parameters to be estimated (e.g., hydraulic conductivity per element) with relatively few model runs (Delottier et al., 2022). Introducing additional fine‐scale heterogeneity may not have substantially affected simulated catchment‐scale dynamics, however.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating Fully‐Integrated Hydrological Dynamics in Complex Alpine Headwaters: Potential and Challenges

Thornton

Therrien

Mariethoz

et al. 2022

Water Resources Research

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating Fully‐Integrated Hydrological Dynamics in Complex Alpine Headwaters: Potential and Challenges

Thornton

Therrien

Mariethoz

et al. 2022

Water Resources Research

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“…An understanding of long‐term water exchange between streams and aquifers is crucial to water resource supply planning, allocation, and management. Extensive studies have been made to assess this issue over the past several decades (Tripathi et al., 2021) using field methods such as seepage meters and tracer tests (Kalbus et al., 2006; Rosenberry & Morin, 2004) as well as computer models such as MODFLOW, HYDRUS‐2D, GSFLOW, CATHY, and HGS (Delottier et al., 2022; Gatel et al., 2020; Ghysels et al., 2019; Larsen et al., 2022; Phogat et al., 2017). Among them, Rosenberry and Morin (2004) applied electromagnetic seepage meters to automatically measure water exchanges across the sediment/water interface between groundwater and surface water in New England.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stream and aquifer water exchange in Mississippi Embayment under intensive pumping and extreme climate: A century‐long assessment

Ouyang,

Jin,

Leininger

2024

J American Water Resour Assoc

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The Mississippi Embayment (ME) is one of the fastest groundwater depletion zones in the world. This study investigated stream‐aquifer water exchange in the ME over a 115‐year period (1900 to 2014) under normal and extreme climates (i.e., precipitation increased and decreased by 20%) with and without agricultural pumping for crop irrigation. The average daily water flow from the aquifer to the streams was always greater than vice versa under all climate scenarios. Under normal climate, the average daily water flow from the aquifer to the streams was 2.52 times larger without pumping than with pumping. While the extreme climate had discernable impacts, the groundwater pumping, but not extreme climate, was the major factor for low flows and drying streams in the ME. These findings are essential to groundwater resource management in the region and provide a critical reference for other parts of the world with similar conditions.

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“…Compromises in model structure, 60 parameterisation or process complexity may therefore be required (see e.g. Delottier et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introduction 35mentioning

confidence: 99%

Data space inversion for efficient uncertainty quantification using an integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic model

Delottier

Doherty²,

Brunner

2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Hydrological numerical modelling is generally designed to provide predictions of uncertain quantities in a decision-support context. In the implementation of decision-support modelling, data assimilation and uncertainty quantification are often the most difficult and time-consuming tasks. This is because the imposition of history-matching constraints on model parameters usually requires a large number of model runs. Data Space Inversion (DSI) provides an alternative (and highly model-run-efficient) method for predictive uncertainty quantification that avoids the need for parameter estimation. It does this by evaluating covariances between model outputs used for history matching (e.g. hydraulic heads) and model predictions based on model runs that sample the prior parameter probability distribution. By focusing on the direct relationship between model outputs under historical conditions and predictions of system behaviour under future conditions, DSI avoids the need to estimate or adjust model parameters. This is advantageous when using such as Integrated Surface and Subsurface Hydrologic Models (ISSHMs). These models are characterised by long run times, a penchant for numerical instability and/or complex parameterisation schemes that are designed to maintain geological realism. This paper demonstrates that DSI provides a robust and efficient means of quantifying the uncertainties of complex model predictions, at the same time as it provides a basis for complementary linear analyses that can explore issues such as data worth. DSI is applied in conjunction with an ISSHM representing a synthetic but realistic stream-aquifer system. Predictions of interest are fast travel times and surface water infiltration. Linear and nonlinear estimates of prediction uncertainty based on DSI are validated against a more traditional approach to prediction uncertainty quantification which requires adjustment of a large number of parameters. A DSI-generated surrogate model is then used to investigate the effectiveness and efficiency of existing and possible future monitoring networks. This demonstrates the benefits of using DSI in conjunction with a complex numerical model to quantify prediction uncertainty and support data worth analysis in complex hydrogeological environments.

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A hybrid approach for integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic simulation of baseflow with Iterative Ensemble Smoother

Cited by 8 publications

References 68 publications

Simulating Fully‐Integrated Hydrological Dynamics in Complex Alpine Headwaters: Potential and Challenges

Simulating Fully‐Integrated Hydrological Dynamics in Complex Alpine Headwaters: Potential and Challenges

Stream and aquifer water exchange in Mississippi Embayment under intensive pumping and extreme climate: A century‐long assessment

Data space inversion for efficient uncertainty quantification using an integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic model

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