A hybrid and integrated approach to evaluate and prevent disasters

Abstract

Disasters are, by their nature, very complex phenomena. Their modelling using a systematic and logical methodology can help us identify their root causes and may facilitate in allocating appropriate resources to prevent such situations. Although techniques exist to model such phenomena, a single off-the-shelf model is insufficient to provide an effective and realistic analysis to prevent disasters due to its inherent assumptions. In order to overcome these limitations of single methods, this article proposes a hybrid model of four methods to optimise a safety investment. First, a hierarchy is constructed with a problem structuring approach. Second, a new graphical representation, the Crisis Tree Analysis, is introduced to visualise how a combination of basic events may lead to a disaster. Third, the criticality of each event is assessed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Finally, a mathematical programming model is proposed to calculate the optimal allocation of available funds in order to avoid the disaster. A case study of the Bhopal disaster is used to illustrate the proposed four-step method.

Target setting for indirect processes: a new hybrid method for the continuous improvement management of indirect processes

“…Once the problem is defined, the processes are modelled in step I. Modelling processes are often described as the first and most important step towards making a rational decision. The modelling exercise transforms ill-defined processes into a set of well-defined elements, relations and operations (Ishizaka and Labib 2014). The result of this structuring methodology is a better understanding of the process.…”

“…The main goal of process modelling is to develop a formal representation of the contributory factors to the decision problem, including the views, opinions and values of multiple decision-makers. Process modelling is not a solution-oriented approach, but an approach to finding the constituents of the process (Ishizaka and Labib 2014). A popular way to structure the process is the component-based approach, which leads to more manageable activities in the TSIP method.…”

Mapping verbal AHP scale to numerical scale for cloud computing strategy selection

“…Awareness session: An awareness session on the AHP methodology was given along with the presentation of several success studies [41][42][43][44]. An understanding of the AHP and required inputs is necessary in order to avoid improper use of the method [45].…”

A hybrid model for learning from failures: The Hurricane Katrina disaster

“…Reliability engineering techniques such as FTA, RBD and Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) have been used to analyse the case of the Bhopal disaster (Labib & Champaneri, 2012), and it has been shown how such techniques can help in building a mental model of describing the causal effects of the disaster. The same case study of Bhopal was also investigated (Ishizaka & Labib, 2013) and a new logic gate in a fault tree was proposed for analysing disasters and the benefits of using hybrid techniques of multiple criteria and fault analysis to evaluate and prevent disasters were demonstrated. Hybrid modelling has recently been adopted by several authors.…”