A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions

Abstract

Although developing countries are called to participate in CO2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world’s population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300 Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20 % to 30 % of previously calculated CO2 budgets limiting global warming to 2°C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2°C target after a particular development threshold is reached. For example, in each time step of five years, countries with an HDI of 0.85 would need to reduce their per capita emissions by approx. 17% and countries with an HDI of 0.9 by 33 %. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100 Gt of CO2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2°C.

Carbon Intensities of Economies from the Perspective of Learning Curves

“…In theory, increased HDI could actually be harmful for the climate system since many developing countries are found in the high end of Figure 1 with no guarantee that their trajectory will take them down to the right end of the curve. At the same time, it is worth observing that many countries are managing to increase their welfare (towards higher HDI) at lower emission intensities as indicated by the large number of dots on the lower end of the curve [19,20].…”

“…The global carbon budget will have long since expired as the economies of these nations approach Scandinavian emission levels. In other words, in a business-asusual trajectory, HDI values will most likely retrocede if a fossil-intensive path is pursued by the populous developing world [19].…”

“Decent Living” Emissions: A Conceptual Framework

“…In the climate literature, most recently Costa et al estimate country-specific emissions requirements for achieving a human development index (HDI) threshold of 0.8 by extrapolating statistically estimated historical relationships between countries' emissions and HDI [35]. They propose that countries should be exempt from mitigation until they reach this threshold.…”

Feasible mitigation actions in developing countries

“…As fossil fuels have traditionally constituted the major source of energy, there is also a close correlation between human development and GHG emissions (Costa et al 2011). No country has managed to achieve high levels of economic development without having crossed a threshold in final energy consumption of approximately 40 GJ / capita (Steinberger and Roberts 2010;.…”