A Human-Bovine Schistosomiasis Mathematical Model with Treatment and Mollusciciding

In this paper, a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of Fasciola hepatica in cattle and snail populations is formulated and analyzed. The snail mortality rate (μs) is the most important factor that indirectly impacts the basic reproduction number (R0). A 50% change, either an increase or decrease, in the snail mortality rate will result in an approximate 50% change in the opposite direction in the value of R0. The model shows a forward bifurcation at R0 = 1, indicating that the disease dynamics undergo a critical transition at this threshold. This change signifies a transition from a disease‐free state to a persistent infection, highlighting the possibility of a continuous disease presence given specific epidemiological conditions. Simulations show that reducing miracidia, metacercariae, and snail populations, improving treatment, and lowering pathogen transfer between cattle and snails significantly decrease disease prevalence in cattle. To control the disease, transmission rates for cattle and snails must be reduced below γc = 1.4338 × 10−7 and γs = 1.1473 × 10−8, respectively. Current treatments are insufficient, and a combination of improved treatments reduced transmission rates, and increased snail mortality is recommended for better disease control.

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Mathematical model of voluntary vaccination against schistosomiasis

Lopez,

Majid,

Syed

et al. 2024

PeerJ

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Human schistosomiasis is a chronic and debilitating neglected tropical disease caused by parasitic worms of the genus Schistosoma. It is endemic in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Although there is currently no vaccine available, vaccines are in development. In this paper, we extend a simple compartmental model of schistosomiasis transmission by incorporating the vaccination option. Unlike previous models of schistosomiasis transmission that focus on control and treatment at the population level, our model focuses on incorporating human behavior and voluntary individual vaccination. We identify vaccination rates needed to achieve herd immunity as well as optimal voluntary vaccination rates. We demonstrate that the prevalence remains too high (higher than 1%) unless the vaccination costs are sufficiently low. Thus, we can conclude that voluntary vaccination (with or without mass drug administration) may not be sufficient to eliminate schistosomiasis as a public health concern. The cost of the vaccine (relative to the cost of schistosomiasis infection) is the most important factor determining whether voluntary vaccination can yield elimination of schistosomiasis. When the cost is low, the optimal voluntary vaccination rate is high enough that the prevalence of schistosomiasis declines under 1%. Once the vaccine becomes available for public use, it will be crucial to ensure that the individuals have as cheap an access to the vaccine as possible.

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A Human-Bovine Schistosomiasis Mathematical Model with Treatment and Mollusciciding

Cited by 3 publications

References 48 publications

A compartmental model for Schistosoma japonicum transmission dynamics in the Philippines

A compartmental model for Schistosoma japonicum transmission dynamics in the Philippines

Modeling and Analysis of Fasciola Hepatica Disease Transmission

Mathematical model of voluntary vaccination against schistosomiasis

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