A high-resolution spatial analysis of climate threats to coastal infrastructure and sustainable development outcomes

Abstract

Climate hazards pose increased threats to development outcomes across the world’s coastal regions by impacting infrastructure service delivery. Using a high-resolution dataset of 8.2 million households in Bangladesh's coastal zone, we assess the extent to which infrastructure service disruptions, induced by flood, cyclone, and erosion hazards, can thwart progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Results show that climate hazards potentially threaten infrastructure service access to all households, with the poorest being disproportionately threatened in 68% of coastal sub-districts. Targeting adaptation to these climatic threats in one-third (33%) of the most vulnerable areas could help to safeguard 50-85% of achieved progress towards SDG 3, 4, 7, 8, and 13 indicators. These findings illustrate the potential of geospatial climate risk and adaptation analyses, which incorporate direct household exposure and essential service access. High-resolution analysis is becoming feasible even in data-scarce parts of the world, helping decision-makers target and prioritise pro-poor development interventions.