Abstract:Propagation of an epidemic across a spatial network of communities is described by a variant of the SIR model accompanied by an intercommunity infectivity matrix. This matrix is estimated from fluxes between communities, obtained from cell-phone tracking data recorded in the USA between March 2020 and February 2021. We have applied this model to the 2020 dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We find that the numbers of susceptible and infected individuals predicted by the model agree with the reported cases in … Show more
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