A heterogeneidade da mortalidade da população brasileira e aspectos distributivos na previdência social: uma análise atuarial da proposta de idade mínima de aposentadoria

Abstract

ARTIGO ORIGINAL / ORIGINAL ARTICLEA heterogeneidade da mortalidade da população brasileira e aspectos distributivos na previdência social: uma análise atuarial da proposta de idade mínima de aposentadoria Palavras-chave: reforma da previdência, idade mínima de aposentadoria, heterogeneidade da mortalidade, expectativa de vida, justiça atuarial. Abstract:With the objective of reforming the Brazilian social security system, the Federal Government sent to the House of Representatives the Constitutional Amendment Proposal nº 287/2016, which, among other measures, proposes to establish a progressive statutory retirement age. This paper evaluated the distributive aspects that this measure can generate for the taxpayers, based on the calculation of the actuarially fair contribution rates considering the mortality heterogeneity of the Brazilian population. As a main result, it has been observed that there will be a negative redistribution, in which those with low life expectancy, who entered the labor market still young and with low salary growth, will finance the retirement income of the ones with higher life expectancy, who have entered the labor market at an older age and have greater prospects for wage growth.

Mortality dynamics and the statutory retirement age proposal: an actuarial view

“…The authors also emphasize that the projections are biased towards the short term (overestimating the deficit, for example) and, indeed, would have little utility in long term analyses. Souza (2018) also indicates that defining a high minimum retirement age could affect workers in professions with greater physical demands and who may be interested in retiring at younger ages, even with salary losses, as well as the fact that it could cause negative redistributive effects for the system.…”

“…Another point to be highlighted regarding pension reform is that this has stimulated an important academic discussion, especially with regards to its potential impacts, evaluated based on actuarial studies, such as Afonso and Zylberstajn (2017), Dias (2018), Gouveia et al (2018), and Souza (2018). Besides the subject, these studies have in common the fact that in their analyses they consider the use of period (static) mortality tables, which from a long-term perspective, as in the case of retirement flows, means that despite their relevance the results need to be interpreted with caution.…”

“…Then, it was necessary to expand these abbreviated mortality tables to complete ones. Consistently with the practices adopted by official bodies (IBGE 2016;Silva, 2015), this procedure was divided into three parts: for ages from 1 to 4, a hyperbolic adjustment of the number of survivors was carried out and, for ages from 5 to 85, it was assumed that the survival function followed a Gompertz curve as defined by the IBGE (2016) and discussed in Souza (2018). For the ages above 85, the approach was based on the methodology developed by Silva (2015) and adopted for extrapolation of the IBGE mortality tables.…”

“…(Gouveia et al, 2018;Souza, 2018), that the employee joins the labor market at 20 years-old receiving an annual salary equal to S 20 , which grows at a real rate of i s % p.a., where i s = 2% p.a. (Gouveia et al, 2018;Souza, 2018), and that over their active lifetime, all the employee's salaries are at the RGPS pension limits (ceiling and floor). In addition, for simplicity it is assumed that the financial flows are in advance and annual in periodicity and that there is a 100% contribution density.…”

“…However, despite seeking to discuss peculiarities of the reform, such as the mortality heterogeneity of the Brazilian population (Souza, 2018), balanced contribution rates based on applying multidecremental models (Gouveia, Souza & Rêgo, 2018), the comparison of social security indicators (Afonso & Zylberstajn, 2017), and specific discussions about the RPPS (Dias, 2018), these studies present the methodological limitation of using period mortality tables, which only consider the mortality observed in a given time period (Ortega, 1982) in their analyses, even when faced with scenarios of increasing life expectancy. Indeed, research based on period tables ignores the dynamic behavior of mortality.…”