A global trade supply chain vulnerability in COVID-19 pandemic: An assessment metric of risk and resilience-based efficiency of CoDEA method

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has an adverse impact on the global trade supply chain. Countries where the economy is driven by global trade, either as exporters or importers and are faced with the problem of declining imports and exports. This is due to the interruption of the main players of the global supply chain (i.e., production, logistics and transportation sector) as well as the slow-down in consumption of overseas customers. This paper presents the development of an efficiency related metric from the Coherent Data Envelopment Analysis (CoDEA) method for assessing the vulnerability (or conversely, the robustness) levels of the supply chain system of six ASEAN countries. The results reveal that Thailand is most vulnerable to international supply chain issues indicated by its lowest efficiency score. This is due to Thailand's severe disruption of logistics and transportation systems compared with its neighboring countries. In contrast, Vietnam is the most robust because of its efficiency in the exports sector. Our research reveals that trading partners with a lower risk and the ability to rapidly recover their import volume reflect their less vulnerable supply chains. This research provides the associated strategies to establish a resilient global supply chain in spite of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Using network data envelopment analysis to assess the sustainability and resilience of healthcare supply chains in response to the COVID-19 pandemic

“…Jomthanachai et al ( 2021 ) and Matin et al ( 2022 ) measured supply chain resilience using DEA. Similarly, Kalantary and Farzipoor Saen ( 2022 ), Fathi and Farzipoor Saen ( 2021 ), Mohtashami et al ( 2021 ), Dey et al ( 2021 ), Malesios et al ( 2020 ), and Wang et al ( 2020 ) used DEA to measure supply chain sustainability.…”

The Impact of COVID-19 on Chinese trade and production: An empirical analysis of processing trade with Japan and the US

“…Their model finds that COVID has asymmetric effects by country and that the disruption in China caused a global trade loss of 12.467%. Jomthanachai, Wong, Soh, and Lim (2022) build on these findings, using a risk assessment model to specify that countries with midstream roles in the global supply chain are particularly vulnerable. Empirical research on trade and COVID indicates that the most negative impact on supply chain performance is seen in cases with long-term disruptions to production and demand downstream ( Ivanov, 2020 ), and that Asian exporters are more greatly affected than Asian non-exporters among micro, small, and medium enterprises ( Takeda, Truong, & Sonobe, 2022 ).…”

Could “Digital Gold” Resist Global Supply Chain Pressure?

“…As the economic globalisation becomes an irreversible trend (Blanton & Apodaca, 2007), the global supply chain is evolving correspondingly (Ekinci et al, 2022;Feng et al, 2022). The global supply chain refers to the extension of the supply chain system to the whole world, which is characterised by complexity and vulnerability, that is, each node is a "vulnerable point", the collapse of one country's supply could disrupt the global supply system (Golan et al, 2020;Bonadio et al, 2021;Jomthanachai et al, 2022). If there are risks or uncertainties caused by the disruptions of global supply chain, the pessimism about the economic prospect intensifies.…”

“…Then, the demand for hedging assets or safe heavens (e.g., the international bitcoin market) increases accordingly, driving the price of relevant assets (e.g., BP) to rise (Su et al, 2020c). Additionally, high GSCP tends to cause supply shortages, which inevitably lead to an inflation crisis (Jomthanachai et al, 2022). Since bitcoin could serve as a hedge against inflation risks, causing its demand and price to increase (Su et al, 2020b;Choi & Shin, 2022).…”