A GIS based flood vulnerability modelling of Anambra State using an integrated IVFRN-DEMATEL-ANP model

Abstract

Flooding is a major environmental problem facing Anambra State of Nigeria, which also threatens food security in the state. To address this issue, continual flood vulnerability mapping exploring more efficient methods is needed to facilitate flood risk management in the state. The advantages of employing spatial information technologies such as Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) in flood vulnerability mapping has been widely documented; the limitations of employing GIS alone in effective vulnerability analysis have also been documented by researchers. To overcome these limitations, this study adopted the use of GIS and the integration of Interval Value Fuzzy Rough Number (IVFRN), Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL), and Analytical Network Process (ANP) method in vulnerability assessment of flood hazard. The result of the study shows that the state is very vulnerable to flood with 73% of the total area of the state lying between Very High and Medium vulnerable zones. The most vulnerable Local Government Area (LGA) in the State is Anambra West with 95% of the total area of the LGA lying between Very High and Medium vulnerable zones. Furthermore, the obtained values ofR ÀD show that Rainfall Intensity factor is the major cause of flood in the study area with the highest positive value of 1.55 and Soil factor is the major effect with the highest negative value of -0.93. The IVFRN-DEMATEL-ANP assessment model was validated using AUC-ROC method; an AUC value of 0.946 was obtained, this indicates that the model has excellent prediction accuracy. This study was able to establish the feasibility of integrating the IVFRN, DEMATEL and ANP methods in flood vulnerability assessment. It is recommended that the provision of adequate drainage systems should be prioritized to areas of high flood vulnerability index; to help mitigate flood hazards in the State. Also, strategic planning of infrastructures and emergency routes for moving people and key assets from vulnerable areas especially during the rainy season should be geospatialbased and systematic.

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