A geographic information system-based logical urban growth model for predicting spatial growth of an urban area

Abstract

The paper describes the development of a forecasting model to render most logical or probable urban expansion over the spatial region of an urban area. Prediction of urban growth is very important for development planning and policy making as well as for urban management. In this model, five different but equal influential factors of urban expansion choices have been integrated. Those factors are city’s future development master plan, spatial and temporal population growth pattern, land elevation, road connectivity and distance from existing urban center(s). The integration processes were performed on equal area hexagonal grid through geographic information system application. The location-specific information were extracted and overlaid on the hexagonal grid and classified into a scale of scores in order to compare the cells with one another. The model presumes that the higher the cell value is the higher the probability to be developed as urban. As a case study, the model delineated spatial growth of Dhaka city by the years of 2025 and 2040. There it has been observed that Badda, Khilkhet, Khilgaon, Jatrabari, Demra, Ashulia, Savar, etc. areas are supposed to be urbanized in the near future. Subsequently, a huge portion of flood flow zone are most likely to be developed as urban though those are non-urban areas as declared by the authority. On the other hand, the regions across the lying rivers in Dhaka Metropolitan area may face sluggish urban development despite closer proximity to core urban. Since the model portrays future expansion over the geographical regions, the urban planners and decision makers may utilize it in physical planning to guide future urbanization.

Extracting an Urban Growth Model’s Land Cover Layer from Spatio-Temporal Cadastral Database and Simulation Application

“…Creating UGSMs can now be easily made thanks to developments in computer technology. Therefore, a number of simulation models have been generated to predict, analyze, and monitor urbanization [4,[6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. The well-known model among them is CA and it is frequently used to follow the changes caused by urban growth on land cover.…”

Causes of Urban Migration in Bangladesh: Evidence from the Urban Health Survey

“…According to the results, around 68% of the migrants from rural areas were living in Dhaka City, which is now one of the fastest growing megacities in the world (Islam et al, 2014;Pramanik and Stathakis, 2016 reasons. This mass migration actively contributed to population growth in Dhaka (Debnath and Amin, 2016) and gave rise to urban complexities including increased criminal activities, conspicuous drug addiction, heightened sexually transmitted disease rates, and high suicide rates (Jahan, 2012;Haque and Rana, 2014;Kamruzzaman and Hakim, 2015;McClair et al, 2017). The growing work opportunities in Dhaka and Chittagong and in their suburbs, is primarily due to industrialization,…”

Sustainability Challenges for Sprawling Dhaka

“…The process of urban sprawling is multifaceted and often the consequence of different forces such as urbanization, population growth, inadvertent decentralization and intentional fragmented growth (Barnes et al, 2002;Debnath & Amin, 2016); all of which are connected to social, economic and spatial benefits of the cities. The process of sprawl also varies over time under the influence and interactions of diverse forces on the ground (Bhatta et al, 2010;Ramachandra et al, 2012).…”

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