A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

Tompkins, Adrian M.; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean P.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0136154

Cited by 8 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…Although over the last few years a big effort has been made in the modelling community to improve the representation of the biophysical and biogeochemical LCC climate impacts, an additional effort is still needed to overcome: (a) the apparent mismatch of scales at which LCC actually occur and those usually adopted in model experiments in ESMs (Rounsevell et al 2014, Tompkins et al 2015, (b) the different temporal and spatial scales of biophysical and biogeochemical processes and (c) the current oversimplified treatment of LCC in ESMs (Rounsevell et al 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Biophysical effects on temperature and precipitation due to land cover change

Perugini

Caporaso

Marconi

et al. 2017

Environ. Res. Lett.

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194

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Anthropogenic land cover changes (LCC) affect regional and global climate through biophysical variations of the surface energy budget mediated by albedo, evapotranspiration, and roughness. This change in surface energy budget may exacerbate or counteract biogeochemical greenhouse gas effects of LCC, with a large body of emerging assessments being produced, sometimes apparently contradictory. We reviewed the existing scientific literature with the objective to provide an overview of the state-of-the-knowledge of the biophysical LCC climate effects, in support of the assessment of mitigation/adaptation land policies. Out of the published studies that were analyzed, 28 papers fulfilled the eligibility criteria, providing surface air temperature and/or precipitation change with respect to LCC regionally and/or globally. We provide a synthesis of the signal, magnitude and uncertainty of temperature and precipitation changes in response to LCC biophysical effects by climate region (boreal/temperate/tropical) and by key land cover transitions. Model results indicate that a modification of biophysical processes at the land surface has a strong regional climate effect, and non-negligible global impact on temperature. Simulation experiments of large-scale (i.e. complete) regional deforestation lead to a mean reduction in precipitation in all regions, while air surface temperature increases in the tropics and decreases in boreal regions. The net global climate effects of regional deforestation are less certain. There is an overall consensus in the model experiments that the average global biophysical climate response to complete global deforestation is atmospheric cooling and drying. Observed estimates of temperature change following deforestation indicate a smaller effect than model-based regional estimates in boreal regions, comparable results in the tropics, and contrasting results in temperate regions. Regional/local biophysical effects following LCC are important for local climate, water cycle, ecosystems, their productivity and biodiversity, and thus important to consider in the formulation of adaptation policy. However before considering the inclusion of biophysical climate effects of LCC under the UNFCCC, science has to provide robust tools and methods for estimation of both country and global level effects.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Biophysical effects on temperature and precipitation due to land cover change

Perugini

Caporaso

Marconi

et al. 2017

Environ. Res. Lett.

Self Cite

194

135

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Our review revealed many more road ecology publications from Africa than we expected, with a significant increase in the number of publications since 2006. Most of the publications were from the more affluent and politically stable regions (e.g., southern and East Africa), particularly pre-2006 publications (Drews, 1995;Dean and Milton, 2000), whilst post-2006 publications saw an increase in the number of papers from Central Africa (Hicks et al, 2012;Tompkins et al, 2015;Cameron et al, 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Status of Road Ecology Research in Africa: Do We Understand the Impacts of Roads, and How to Successfully Mitigate Them?

et al. 2019

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Across Africa, transport infrastructure, including roads, is being built in over 30 planned development corridors that are likely to have major impacts on remaining natural habitats and associated biodiversity. Linked to this is the projected increase in human population size, which is predicted to grow by 1.3 billion people by 2050. Road ecology is the study of the ecological effects (both positive and negative) of roads and traffic but is perceived to be under-researched in Africa. In this context, we undertook a systematic review of road ecology research in Africa to understand the geographic and taxonomic scope of work undertaken to date, as well as recommendations for reducing the impacts of roads. We discovered 210 road ecology publications from Africa (published between 1954 and 2016), with most publications from the more affluent and politically stable regions (e.g., southern and East Africa). We found more publications than expected, with relevant research concealed within studies whose primary focus was on other topics. Most publications (1) focused on single species, and in particular on mammals (where chimpanzees and forest elephants were most studied); (2) were from southern Africa; and 3) were conducted in the grassland and savannah biome and the tropical and subtropical forest biome. Most publications examined the direct impacts of roads, in particular wildlife-vehicle collisions. Only one-third of the publications provided some form of recommendation for intervention to reduce or mitigate the impacts of roads, based on evidence from the publication. Most recommended interventions related to ecosystem or natural process recreation, as well as site and area stewardship. Gaps and future directions for research include rigorous testing of measures to mitigate the impacts of roads, inclusion of traffic monitoring in studies, understanding the impacts of upgrading roads, and exploring livelihood, economic and moral incentives and education and training as potential interventions for reducing the impacts of roads. Our review has highlighted the need for accelerating the study of the impacts of roads on natural habitats and biodiversity, in light of planned large-scale infrastructure development, and especially the study of appropriate mitigation measures that can be rigorously assessed and implemented before and during construction and upgrading of roads in Africa.

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“…Beginning with the least influential variable in the model's accuracy and skill, the next least influential variable is added, and additional variables sequentially added until only one variable, the most influential remains. This process informs the model development as it identifies those variables that did not significantly improve the overall accuracy of the model and can be permanently excluded [30,31]. The above sensitivity tests provide valuable information that the MLP use to generate the most parsimonious model.…”

Section: Model Development and Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 98%

New 1 km Resolution Datasets of Global and Regional Risks of Tree Cover Loss

Hewson

Crema

González‐Roglich

et al. 2019

Land

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Despite global recognition of the social, economic and ecological impacts of deforestation, the world is losing forests at an alarming rate. Global and regional efforts by policymakers and donors to reduce deforestation need science-driven information on where forest loss is happening, and where it may happen in the future. We used spatially-explicit globally-consistent variables and global historical tree cover and loss to analyze how global- and regional-scale variables contributed to historical tree cover loss and to model future risks of tree cover loss, based on a business-as-usual scenario. Our results show that (1) some biomes have higher risk of tree cover loss than others; (2) variables related to tree cover loss at the global scale differ from those at the regional scale; and (3) variables related to tree cover loss vary by continent. By mapping both tree cover loss risk and potential future tree cover loss, we aim to provide decision makers and donors with multiple outputs to improve targeting of forest conservation investments. By making the outputs readily accessible, we anticipate they will be used in other modeling analyses, conservation planning exercises, and prioritization activities aimed at conserving forests to meet national and global climate mitigation targets and biodiversity goals.

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A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

Cited by 8 publications

References 76 publications

Biophysical effects on temperature and precipitation due to land cover change

Biophysical effects on temperature and precipitation due to land cover change

Status of Road Ecology Research in Africa: Do We Understand the Impacts of Roads, and How to Successfully Mitigate Them?

New 1 km Resolution Datasets of Global and Regional Risks of Tree Cover Loss

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