A generalised technique for the estimation of probable maximum precipitation in India

Rakhecha, P. R.; Kennedy, Marie

doi:10.1016/0022-1694(85)90112-x

Cited by 20 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Hence, following Rakhecha et al (1995), India was divided into three zones: east of 80º E and north of 18º N; west of 80º E and north of 18º N; and south of 18º N (see Figure 1). Rakhecha & Kennedy (1985) go even further and treat India as one region, but in this study proper allowance was made for the meteorology of the subcontinent. This is a mid-way position between others (for example, Dhar & Nandargi 1993) who advocate less widespread transposition limits.…”

Section: Factors Affecting Pmp Distribution and The Resulting Regionamentioning

confidence: 99%

Areal PMP distribution of one‐day to three‐day duration over India

Clark¹,

Rakhecha²

2002

Meteorological Applications

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There is a need to assess the areal depth of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) over specified catchment areas for the safe construction of dam spillways. The large number of dams in India, coupled with their risk of failure, makes this need imperative both for the maximum use of water resources and for public safety. On the basis of rainfall data for the heaviest storms that occurred in different parts of India during the period 1880–1983, improved estimates of one‐, two‐, and three‐day point PMP for India have been made. In this paper the distribution of areal PMP over specified catchment sizes is provided for the first time. The areal reduction factors (ARF) were based on envelope curves of major storms to give the ARF for areas of 10–20,000 km2 . These factors were found to vary from 1.0 to 0.41, though there was no real difference between durations of rainfall. These values of ARF were then multiplied by values of one‐ to three‐day PMP. The resulting maps allow a broad description of the spatial distribution of areal PMP and also provide a rapid and consistent estimate of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from the PMP. For 500 km2 the areal PMP varies from 40 to 120 cm for one‐day duration; from 70 to 200 cm for twoday duration; and from 75 to 270 cm for three‐day duration. The pattern of PMP is consistent with the geography and available moisture. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

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Section: Factors Affecting Pmp Distribution and The Resulting Regionamentioning

confidence: 99%

Areal PMP distribution of one‐day to three‐day duration over India

Clark¹,

Rakhecha²

2002

Meteorological Applications

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“…Such adjustment is known as “storm transposition.” For this research, the storm transposition was carried out by using the factors obtained from previous studies in tropical areas (U.S. Weather Bureau, ; Rakhecha and Kennedy, ; WMO, ; Al‐Mamun and Hashim, ; Wangwongwiroj and Khemngoen, ). These TAFs for tropical areas include the moisture adjustment factor, elevation adjustment factor, distance‐from‐coast adjustment factor, and latitude adjustment factor.…”

Section: Estimation Of Pmp Using the Generalized Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The selected storm data were corrected for topographical and climatic differences through a procedure called storm transposition. In addition, other studies also estimated PMP using the same method but were based on the transposition adjustments specific to the area of study (Rakhecha and Kennedy, 1985;Rakhecha and Clark, 1999;Al-Mamun and Hashim, 2004;Fernando and Wickramasuriya, 2011). In Thailand, there was a study on PMP for northern and northeastern areas by using the physical method (Wangwongwiroj and Khemngoen, 2017a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probable maximum precipitation in tropical zone (Thailand) as estimated by generalized method and statistical method

Wangwongwiroj

Khemngoen

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The objective of this research was to estimate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for the duration of 1 to 3 days in Thailand. Rainfall data were collected from 217 meteorological stations. Two methods for estimating PMP were applied: the generalized method which analysed actual storms data using meteorological process, and the Hershfield's statistical method which applied the frequency analysis of the annual maximum rainfall. Both methods were commonly used and were recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for estimating PMP. PMP estimation results were presented as isohyetal maps. For the generalized method, most PMP values were found higher in the east and decreased towards the west. However, there was no clear trend with the statistical method in the PMP's spatial distribution. An analysis of the 3‐day PMP averages showed that PMP estimation using the generalized method is 10% higher than that of the statistical method. The study results were then applied to estimate PMP of six large dams in Thailand and compared with the ones used in the design of the spillways. It was found that PMP estimation based on the generalized method was closer to the value used in the spillway design of those dams than PMP estimation based on the statistical method.

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“…The concept of each method can be categorized simply as either statistical methods or hydrometeorological methods (Rakhecha and Kennedy 1985;Abbs 1999;Douglas and Barros 2003;Chen and Bradley 2007;Fernando and Wickramasuriya 2011;Casas et al 2011). PMP estimation method using numerical weather models have also been developed in recent years (Tan 2010;Yigzaw et al 2013;Ishida et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Probable Maximum Precipitation by Considering Combined Effect of Typhoon and Southwesterly Air Flow

Liu¹,

Yang²,

Kuo³

et al. 2016

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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Typhoon Morakot hit southern Taiwan in 2009, bringing 48-hr of heavy rainfall [close to the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)] to the Tsengwen Reservoir catchment. This extreme rainfall event resulted from the combined (co-movement) effect of two climate systems (i.e., typhoon and southwesterly air flow). Based on the traditional PMP estimation method (i.e., the storm transposition method, STM), two PMP estimation approaches, i.e., Amplification Index (AI) and Independent System (IS) approaches, which consider the combined effect are proposed in this work. The AI approach assumes that the southwesterly air flow precipitation in a typhoon event could reach its maximum value. The IS approach assumes that the typhoon and southwesterly air flow are independent weather systems. Based on these assumptions, calculation procedures for the two approaches were constructed for a case study on the Tsengwen Reservoir catchment. The results show that the PMP estimates for 6-to 60-hr durations using the two approaches are approximately 30% larger than the PMP estimates using the traditional STM without considering the combined effect. This work is a pioneer PMP estimation method that considers the combined effect of a typhoon and southwesterly air flow. Further studies on this issue are essential and encouraged.

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A generalised technique for the estimation of probable maximum precipitation in India

Cited by 20 publications

References 5 publications

Areal PMP distribution of one‐day to three‐day duration over India

Areal PMP distribution of one‐day to three‐day duration over India

Probable maximum precipitation in tropical zone (Thailand) as estimated by generalized method and statistical method

Estimating Probable Maximum Precipitation by Considering Combined Effect of Typhoon and Southwesterly Air Flow

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