A game-theoretic model of Monkeypox to assess vaccination strategies

Abstract

Monkeypox (MPX) is a zoonotic disease similar to smallpox. Its fatality rate is about 11% and it is endemic to the Central and West African countries. In this paper, we analyze a compartmental model of MPX dynamics. Our goal is to see whether MPX can be controlled and eradicated by voluntary vaccinations. We show that there are three equilibria—disease free, fully endemic and previously neglected semi-endemic (with disease existing only among humans). The existence of semi-endemic equilibrium has severe implications should the MPX virus mutate to increased viral fitness in humans. We find that MPX is controllable and can be eradicated in a semi-endemic equilibrium by vaccination. However, in a fully endemic equilibrium, MPX cannot be eradicated by vaccination alone.

Mathematical modelling of the use of insecticide-treated nets for elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in Bihar, India

“…This social dilemma is captured by the game theory framework [65]. The framework has now been applied to help model the prevention of many diseases such as African trypanosomiases [68], chikungunya [69], cholera [70], dengue [71], Ebola [72], hepatitis B [73], hepatitis C [74], meningitis [75], monkeypox [76], polio [77], toxoplasmosis [78] and many others, see for example [67,79] for recent reviews. It has already been demonstrated theoretically [65,80] as well as empirically [66] that individuals behave rationally and that the high cost of vaccination or ITNs [81] is often the reason why the protection is not adopted.…”

Optimal voluntary and mandatory insect repellent usage and emigration strategies to control the chikungunya outbreak on Reunion Island

“…As the likelihood of contracting the disease is dependent upon the behavior of others within the at-risk population, the resulting strategic interactions between individuals can be modeled using game theory. Game-theoretic frameworks have been adopted to studying optimal individual vaccination strategies for smallpox ( Bauch, Galvani & Earn, 2003 ), influenza ( Galvani, Reluga & Chapman, 2007 ; Shim et al, 2012a ), rubella ( Shim, Kochin & Galvani, 2009 ), measles ( Shim et al, 2012b ), toxoplasmosis ( Sykes & Rychtář, 2015 ), Ebola ( Brettin et al, 2018 ), cholera ( Kobe et al, 2018 ), meningitis (A Martinez, J Machado, E Sanchez, I Erovenko, 2019, unpublished data), hepatitis B ( Chouhan et al, 2020 ), monkeypox ( Bankuru et al, 2020 ), poliomyelitis ( Cheng et al, 2020 ), and typhoid fever ( Acosta-Alonzo et al, 2020 ). It has also been applied to other personal protective measures such as insecticide-treated cattle ( Crawford et al, 2015 ), mosquito repellent ( Dorsett et al, 2016 ), insecticide-treated bed nets ( Broom, Rychtář & Spears-Gill, 2016 ), clean water ( Kobe et al, 2018 ), and clean injecting equipment (K Scheckelhoff, A Ejaz, I Erovenko, 2019, unpublished data).…”

A voluntary use of insecticide treated nets can stop the vector transmission of Chagas disease

“…This social dilemma is captured by the game theory framework [23]. The framework has now been applied to help model the prevention of many diseases such as African trypanosomiases [24], chikungunya [25], cholera [26], dengue [27], ebola [28], hepatitis B [29], hepatitis C [30], meningitis [31], monkeypox [32], polio [33], toxoplasmosis [34], typhoid [35] and many others, see for example [36] and [22] for recent reviews.…”