A Fuzzy Rule-Based Ship Risk Profile Prediction Model for Port State Control Inspections

Abstract

Maritime transport is the backbone of the international trade, more than 80% of global freight transport is carried by ships on the seas. However, in a complex and high-risk environment at sea, substandard ships in maritime transport causes serious accidents and hence bring out many threats to the maritime industry. As a result, with the aim of detection and elimination the substandard ships, port state controls (PSC) have been developed to inspect the ships respect to their Ship Risk Profile (SRP). SRP helps to determine the ship's priority for PSC inspections through categorizing the ships in high risk, standard risk or low risk using various generic and historic parameters. In this study a new model is proposed to predict SRP by using fuzzy clustering analysis (FCA) and fuzzy rule-based classification system (FRBS) different from the standard calculation of the SRP in the PSC regimes. The proposed model is structured on five different parameters which are ship type, ship flag, ship age, deficiency number and detention. In the proposed model, to predict the SRP, 53788 ship inspection data belonging to the parameters has been analyzed gathered from the Paris MoU online database between the years of 2017 and 2020. The results obtained with the proposed approach help to identify the risk profile for the ship targeted at almost certain risk level. As a result of the study, it is aimed to provide decision supports for port state control (PSC) officers to detect the most appropriate/risky ship for the inspection.

Evaluation of Port State Control Inspections in Türkiye

“…Looking at the academic research on port state control, it can be seen that the research is mainly on risk and performance analysis (Emecen Kara, 2018;Akpınar & Şahin, 2020;Karahalios, 2021). Studies on risk and performance analysis include "Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)" (Akyüz et al, 2016) "Fuzzy Cluster Analysis (FCA)" (Demirci et al, 2022), "Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)" (Akpınar & Şahin, 2020), "Bayesian" (Yang et al, 2018(Yang et al, , 2020Wang et al, 2021;Chuah et al, 2023), "Grey Relation Analysis (GRA)" (Lai et al, 2023), "Entropy Based Gray Relationship Analysis (GRA)" (Maşalacı & Çakır, 2023), "Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)" (Emecen Kara, 2022;Lai et al, 2023), Excess Factor (EF) (Emecen Kara, 2016;Yılmaz, 2020). Akyüz et al (2016) analysed the maritime safety of the Black Sea MoU, focusing on the compliance of certain aspects of "SOLAS Chapter II-2" regarding fire protection, detection and extinguishing regulations in ships using the FMEA method.…”

“…Akyüz et al (2016) analysed the maritime safety of the Black Sea MoU, focusing on the compliance of certain aspects of "SOLAS Chapter II-2" regarding fire protection, detection and extinguishing regulations in ships using the FMEA method. Demirci et al (2022) focused on the estimation of the risk level of ships for inspections of port state using an analytical method that integrates a fuzzy rule-based system with a machine learning method with the parameters of ship's type, flag and age, number of deficiencies and detention. Wang et al (2021) found that the biggest deficiencies in ship detentions during Tokyo MoU PSC inspections were caused by fire safety and navigational safety, using a Bayesian network model.…”

“…certificates and documents, preparedness for emergencies and the quality of the crew and familiarity with the task are examined (Demirci et al, 2022). When a PSC inspection is carried out, the first procedure after checking the external appearance of the ship under general conditions is to control the ship's certificates and documents, and if no obvious deficiencies are found as a result of the impression obtained, the inspection is terminated.…”

“…Port State Control, which was established after the tanker accidents in the 1960s and 1970s (Torrey Canyon-1967, Amoco Cadiz-1978, has its roots in the "1978 Hague Memorandum" (Nooramin & Sadjadi Parsa, 2010;Arslan & Eyigün, 2016;Şanlıer, 2020Uygur & Bolat, 2021;Wang et al, 2021;Chuah et al, 2023). Later, the "Memorandum of Understanding on Port State Control" was signed between Western states at the "Balkans Conference" held in Paris in 1982 and "the Paris Memorandum of Understanding (Paris Bolat & Alpaslan, 2021;Demirci et al, 2022). Paris MoU is the first PSC system to be implemented (Bang & Jang, 2012;Bolat & Alpaslan, 2021;Chuah et al, 2023).…”

“…There are currently nine main regional MoUs (Paris, Vine Del Mar, Tokyo, Caribbean, Mediterranean, Indian Ocean, Abuja, Black Sea, Riyadh) in the world (MedMoU, 2023a). Moreover, "the United States Coast Guard (USCG)" also conducts inspections of PSC on its shores (Bang & Jang, 2012;Emecen Kara, 2018Uygur & Bolat, 2021;Demirci et al, 2022;Kostović et al, 2022). (Eyigün, 2013).…”