A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for flood risk based on the combination weight of game theory

Lai, Chengguang; Chen, Xiaohong; Chen, Xiaoyu; Wang, Zhaoli; Wu, Xushu; Zhao, Shiwei

doi:10.1007/s11069-015-1645-6

Cited by 176 publications

(94 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Analogously, the comprehensive weight, which reaches a compromise between the subjective weight and the objective weight, can be regarded as an optimum equilibrium solution. The calculation steps of comprehensive weight based on game theory are described as below [23].…”

Section: Game Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The objective weight neglects the decision maker's knowledge and actual situation. On the contrary, the subjective weight is heavily influenced by expert experiences and prejudices, resulting in high subjectivity [23].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Game theory, a strategic bargaining behavior [31], has been developed and employed for various fields from economics to engineering [32]. It can play a better role when it comes to dealing with the conflicts among two or more participants [23]. Similarly, subjective and objective weight can be considered as two participants of a game, and the comprehensive weight is the result of the 'weight' game [23].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It can play a better role when it comes to dealing with the conflicts among two or more participants [23]. Similarly, subjective and objective weight can be considered as two participants of a game, and the comprehensive weight is the result of the 'weight' game [23]. D numbers, a novel theory initially proposed by Deng [24], has become a powerful method to deal with the uncertainty in actual engineering applications due to its capacity of avoiding the mutually-exclusive hypothesis of the frame of discernment [25,26,33,34].…”

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confidence: 99%

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An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Transformer Condition Assessment Using Game Theory and Modified Evidence Combination Extended by D Numbers

et al. 2016

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Abstract:The power transformer is one of the most critical and expensive components for the stable operation of the power system. Hence, how to obtain the health condition of transformer is of great importance for power utilities. Multi-attribute decision-making (MADM), due to its ability of solving multi-source information problems, has become a quite effective tool to evaluate the health condition of transformers. Currently, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Dempster-Shafer theory are two popular methods to solve MADM problems; however, these techniques rarely consider one-sidedness of the single weighting method and the exclusiveness hypothesis of the Dempster-Shafer theory. To overcome these limitations, this paper introduces a novel decision-making model, which integrates the merits of fuzzy set theory, game theory and modified evidence combination extended by D numbers, to evaluate the health condition of transformers. A four-level framework, which includes three factors and seventeen sub-factors, is put forward to facilitate the evaluation model. The model points out the following: First, the fuzzy set theory is employed to obtain the original basic probability assignments for all indices. Second, the subjective and objective weights of indices, which are calculated by fuzzy AHP and entropy weight, respectively, are integrated to generate the comprehensive weights based on game theory. Finally, based on the above two steps, the modified evidence combination extended by D numbers, which avoids the limitation of the exclusiveness hypothesis in the application of Dempster-Shafer theory, is proposed to obtain the final assessment results of transformers. Case studies are given to demonstrate the proposed modeling process. The results show the effectiveness and engineering practicability of the model in transformer condition assessment.

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Section: Game Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Transformer Condition Assessment Using Game Theory and Modified Evidence Combination Extended by D Numbers

et al. 2016

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“…Currently, the statistic analysis method, which is both qualitative and quantitative, is drawing more and more attention. For instance, grey correlation analysis [15], Monte-Carlo method [16], BP neural network method [17], fuzzy comprehensive evaluation [18] and support vector machines method [19] have been applied to the risk assessment in engineering field.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

<strong>Safety Assessment of an Aging Offshore Jacket Platform by Integrating Analytic Hierarchy Process and Grey Clustering Method</strong>

Bao

2016

Preprint

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It is a significant task to assess the safety of the aging offshore jacket platform in order to extend the service life. This paper analyzes the multiple risk factors of an aging jacket platform in Bohai Bay, China and builds the safety evaluation index system, which includes three levels, namely, the target layer, the first-grade indicators layer and the second-grade indicators layer. The target layer consists of three first-grade indicators: ocean environments, structure status, and human and organizational factors. Each first-grade indicator is divided into three second-grade indicators. The weight of each indicator is calculated by analytic hierarchy process to weaken subjective effect. Grey clustering method is applied to estimate the failure risk of the platform in Bohai Bay qualitatively and quantitatively. The assessment standard is divided into five grades and the whitening function of each grey cluster is determined by the assessment scheme. The grey evaluation weight vector of each second-grade indicator is calculated by the table dispatching method. Through layer by layer calculation, the grey assessment value of the target layer is finally estimated by making the grey assessment weight vector single-value and the grey grade is determined according to the maximum principle. The evaluation results show quantitatively that the failure risk grade of the jacket platform in Bohai Bay is medium and the safety assessment method is reasonable and feasible.

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A regional frequency analysis of precipitation extremes in Mainland China with fuzzy c‐means and L‐moments approaches

Wang

Zeng

Lai

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Owing to their essential influence on human society and natural environment exerted by inducing disasters, such as floods and droughts, further studies on precipitation extremes in China are needed. This study presents the regional frequency and spatial‐temporal patterns of precipitation extremes in China based on a high‐resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) daily precipitation dataset from 1961 to 2013. With fuzzy c‐means, L‐moments methods and other scientific statistical tests, a regional frequency analysis (RFA) is conducted, aiming to further understand the regional and spatial distribution of precipitation extremes across China. The results show that: (1) the whole Mainland China can be divided into 50 homogeneous regions on the basis of the characteristics of mean annual precipitation and location indices. (2) For most of the regions, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Normal (GNO) and Pearson type III (PE3) distributions of precipitation extremes fit well, according to the results of goodness‐of‐fit (GOF) test. (3) For RX1DAY, GEV has the best‐fit distribution in the east, northeast and southwest of China, whereas GNO distribution mostly fits the northern and parts of southwest and southeast; in addition, regions which fit PE3 and Generalized Logistic (GLO) distribute dispersedly across the country. (4) For RX5DAY, GEV mainly fits in the middle, southwestern and southern; GNO and PE3 apply best to the northeastern and northern, respectively. (5) Return periods of 20, 50 and 100 years for their best‐fit distributions decrease gradually from southeastern China to northwestern China. Compared with the results of GEV distribution fitted to each grid, RFA may provide more accurate estimates of rainfall quantiles. Definitely, the study results will not only benefit further understanding of the unique and complex features of extreme precipitation in the whole Mainland China but also contribute to the nation‐scale flood prevention, control and management in the backdrop of the changing climate.

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A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for flood risk based on the combination weight of game theory

Cited by 176 publications

References 27 publications

An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Transformer Condition Assessment Using Game Theory and Modified Evidence Combination Extended by D Numbers

An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Transformer Condition Assessment Using Game Theory and Modified Evidence Combination Extended by D Numbers

<strong>Safety Assessment of an Aging Offshore Jacket Platform by Integrating Analytic Hierarchy Process and Grey Clustering Method</strong>

A regional frequency analysis of precipitation extremes in Mainland China with fuzzy c‐means and L‐moments approaches

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