A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment

Nieto-Morote, Ana; Ruz-Vila, Francisco

doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2010.02.002

Cited by 368 publications

(161 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Previous approaches have used mathematical optimisation [13,12,16,17] or fuzzy logic [23,18,27,26] to solve the decision problem. We use a utility-based approach.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Allocation of tasks for reliability growth using multi-attribute utility

Wilson

Quigley

2016

European Journal of Operational Research

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In reliability growth models in particular, and project risk management more generally, improving the reliability of a system or product is limited by constraints on cost and time. There are many possible tasks which can be carried out to identify and design out weaknesses in the system under development. This paper considers the allocation problem: which subset of tasks to undertake. While the method is applicable to project risk management generally, the work has been motivated by reliability growth programmes. We utilise a model for reliability growth, based on an efficacy matrix, developed with engineering experts in the aerospace industry. We develop a general multi-attribute utility function based on targets for cost, time on test and system reliability. The optimal subset is identified by maximising the prior expected utility. We derive conditions on the model parameters for risk aversion and loss aversion based on observed properties of preference. We give conditions for multivariate risk aversion under the general form of the utility function. The method is illustrated using an example informed by work with aerospace organisations.

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“…Previous approaches have used mathematical optimisation [13,12,16,17] or fuzzy logic [23,18,27,26] to solve the decision problem. We use a utility-based approach.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Allocation of tasks for reliability growth using multi-attribute utility

Wilson

Quigley

2016

European Journal of Operational Research

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…They are described with different linguistic expressions [6,7,8,9]. In safety and reliability analysis, membership functions are defined with typical convex triangular and trapezoidal functions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In safety and reliability analysis, membership functions are defined with typical convex triangular and trapezoidal functions. Some papers describe frequencies with linguistic expressions which are modeled by applying the fuzzy set theory [6,7,9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Aggregate importance assessment for each pair of identified hazardous factors is calculated with the arithmetic averaging method [10]. Nieto-Morote and Ruz-Vila develop an algorithm to handle the inconsistences in the fuzzy preference of a pairwise comparison matrix [9]. Priority of hazardous factors at the first hierarchical level is obtained with the procedure developed in this paper.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The overall risk is calculated as a sum of the risks associated with each group of hazardous factors and its weight. Nieto-Moroto and Ruz-Vila, in the fuzzy interfer-ence step of risk analysis, convert the aggregated fuzzy numbers into a fuzzy number that represents the overall risk factor of each hazardous factor [9]. The overall risk of each hazardous factor is calculated as a product of consequence severity and frequency probability divided by risk discrimination.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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