A framework of change‐point detection for multivariate hydrological series

Xiong, Lihua; Jiang, Cong; Xu, Chong‐Yu; Yu, Kunxia; Guo, Shenglian

doi:10.1002/2015wr017677

Cited by 63 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 75 publications

(157 reference statements)

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“…There are several methods on change‐point detection (e.g., Ivancic & Shaw, ; Xiong, Jiang, Xu, Yu, & Guo, ). Ivancic and Shaw () detected multiple change points in annual streamflow using all the U.S. Geological Survey flow gauges and attributed the cause of the abrupt changes in streamflow to natural variability in the climate signal.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterization of sudden and sustained base flow jump hydrologic behaviour in the humid seasonal tropics of the Panama Canal Watershed

Cheng

Ogden

Zhu

2019

Hydrological Processes

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Base flows are important for tropical regions with pronounced dry seasons, which are facing increasing water demands. Base flow generation, however, is one of the most challenging hydrological processes to characterize in the tropics. In many years during the May-December wet season in the Panama Canal Watershed (PCW), base flows in rivers abruptly increase. This increase persists until the start of the December-April dry season. Understanding this unusual base flow jump (BFJ) behaviour is critical to improve water provisioning in the seasonal tropics, especially during droughts and extended dry seasons. This study developed an integrated approach combining piecewise regression on cumulative average base flow and sensitivity analysis to calculate the timing and magnitude of BFJ. Rainfall, forest cover, mean land surface slope, catchment area, and estimated subsurface storage were tested as predictors for the occurrence and magnitude of the BFJs in seven subcatchments of the PCW. Sensitivity analysis on correlated predictors allowed ranking of predictor contributions due to isolated and cross-correlation effects. Correlations between observed BFJs and BFJs predicted by watershed and rainfall-related predictors were 0.92 and 0.65 for BFJ timing and magnitude, respectively. Forest cover was the second most significant predictor after cumulative rainfall for jump magnitude, owing to larger subsurface storage and groundwater recharge in forests than pastures. Catchments in the mountainous eastern PCW always generated larger jumps due to their higher rainfall and greater forest cover than the western PCW catchments. The cross-correlations between predictors contributed to more than 50% of the jump variances. The results demonstrate the importance of rainfall gradient and catchment characteristics in affecting the sudden and sustained BFJs, which can help inform land management decisions intended to enhance water supplies in the tropics. This study underscores the need for more research to further understand the hydrological processes involved in the BFJ phenomenon, including better BFJ models and field characterizations, to help improve tropical ecosystem services under a changing environment. K E Y W O R D Sbase flow, correlated parameters, land cover effect, Panama, sustained base flow increase, sensitivity analysis, tropical catchment, wet season

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterization of sudden and sustained base flow jump hydrologic behaviour in the humid seasonal tropics of the Panama Canal Watershed

Cheng

Ogden

Zhu

2019

Hydrological Processes

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“…Vine copula, also known as pair‐copula construction, provides a solution for constructing multidimensional copula without requiring a conditional independence assumption (Aas et al, ). A few recent studies have demonstrated the applicability of vine copula to hydrology (e.g., Bevacqua et al, ; Xiong et al, ). These studies show the flexibility of vine copula in reproducing a wide range of dependence between multivariate variables, including heterogeneous dependence that could exist among different pairs (also see Liu et al, ; Vernieuwe et al, ; Xiong et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Framework for Exploring Joint Effects of Conditional Factors on Compound Floods

Liu

Cheng

Hao

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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This study highlights the features of vine copula for examining compound events involving underlying conditions that amply the compounding effects. To illustrate, we study compound floods in Texas (TX), USA. These compound floods consist of combinations of precipitation and surface runoff with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and rising temperatures as underlying conditions. Although the individual variable of precipitation and runoff may not itself be extreme, large exceedances can lead to flooding situations when combined. The presence of underlying conditions (e.g., El Niño and/or rising temperatures) can exacerbate the associated flood impacts. We use observational data during May–August for each climate division of TX. A three‐dimensional vine copula is used first to quantify the ENSO effect on precipitation and runoff through conditioning sets of vine copula. We further examine the interplay of a warming signal and El Niño to reveal their mutual effects on compound floods by placing these two factors as interrelated conditions in a four‐dimensional vine copula. Our results show that El Niño is much stronger than the other ENSO states in conditioning a high likelihood of TX compound floods by amplifying mean and extreme states of rainfall and runoff. Conditioned by both El Niño and global temperatures, a slight reduction occurs in TX compound floods under the warmer condition. This is consistent with the trend of precipitation and runoff composites under given conditions, while no appreciable changes are found to suggest a different joint effect of El Niño and rising temperatures on TX compound floods.

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“…where cðÁÞ, f P ðÁÞ, f Ep ðÁÞ, f T ðÁÞ, and f k ðÁÞ denote the density functions of CðÁÞ, F P ðÁÞ, F Ep ðÁÞ, F T ðÁÞ, and F k ðÁÞ, respectively. It should be noted that the dependence structure of (P t ,Ep t ,T t ,k t ) could be nonstationary [Bender et al, 2014;Jiang et al, 2015a;Xiong et al, 2015], but in this study we prefer to assume a stationary dependence structure, that is, h c is constant for the whole observation period.…”

Section: Construction Of Multivariate Dependence Structure Using the mentioning

confidence: 99%

A process‐based insight into nonstationarity of the probability distribution of annual runoff

Jiang

Xiong

Guo

et al. 2017

Water Resources Research

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In this paper, a process‐based analytical derivation approach is proposed to perform a nonstationary analysis for annual runoff distribution by taking into account the information of nonstationarities in both hydrological inputs and runoff generation processes. Under the Budyko hypothesis, annual runoff is simulated as a formulation of hydrological inputs (annual precipitation and potential evaporation) using an annual runoff model based on the Fu equation with a parameter w accounting for the runoff generation processes. The nonstationarity of the runoff generation process is captured by the dynamic Fu‐equation parameter w. Then the multivariate joint probability distribution among the hydrological inputs, the Fu‐equation parameter w, and the runoff model error k is constructed based on the nonstationary analysis for both the hydrological inputs and w. Finally, the annual runoff distribution is derived by integrating the multivariate joint probability density function. The derived distribution by the process‐based analytical derivation approach performs well in fitting distributions of the annual runoffs from both the Yangtze River and Yellow River, China. For most study watersheds in these two basins, the derived annual runoff distributions are found to be nonstationary, due to the nonstationarities in hydrological inputs (mainly potential evaporation) or the Fu‐equation parameter w.

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A framework of change‐point detection for multivariate hydrological series

Cited by 63 publications

References 75 publications

Characterization of sudden and sustained base flow jump hydrologic behaviour in the humid seasonal tropics of the Panama Canal Watershed

Characterization of sudden and sustained base flow jump hydrologic behaviour in the humid seasonal tropics of the Panama Canal Watershed

A Framework for Exploring Joint Effects of Conditional Factors on Compound Floods

A process‐based insight into nonstationarity of the probability distribution of annual runoff

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