A framework for the prospective analysis of ethno-cultural super-diversity

Bélanger, Alain; Sabourin, Patrick; Marois, Guillaume; Hook, Jennifer Van; Vézina, Samuel

doi:10.4054/demres.2019.41.11

Cited by 19 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…Microsimulation models, though heavily dependent on data, are powerful tools that can inform research in an innovative way, for a broad range of issues. The models presented in this paper are built according to a research framework (Bélanger et al 2019) that aims to assess the impact of population dynamics in Western countries and the changes that are likely to happen in terms of ethno-cultural and sociodemographic characteristics. Capable of projecting the population according to numerous variables, these models generate workforce-relevant results to guide policymakers in their decisions regarding immigration policy and the conditions for education skills formation.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of education and immigration on the size and skills of the future workforce

Vézina¹,

Bélanger²

2019

DemRes

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BACKGROUND In most developed countries the demographic regime is characterised by low fertility, high immigration, and population ageing. This regime impacts on the size of the labour force population, the ethno-cultural composition, and potential productivity. OBJECTIVE We examine the prospective impacts of two sociodemographic changes, namely increasing education and increasing immigration levels, on the size and skills of the workforce aged 25 to 64 years old for the time period 2011-2061. METHODS We use microsimulation models to project the population of Austria and Canada by age, sex, and several other socioeconomic and ethno-cultural dimensions. Using 'whatif' scenarios, we measure the impact of different immigration rates and immigrant selection patterns on the size and average literacy skills of the projected workforce. We also examine the potential effects of different assumptions about future educational attainment on the projection outcomes. RESULTS The results show that the volume of immigration heavily influences the expansion of the workforce .In terms of education among the general population, the rise in educational attainment is positively correlated with higher skill levels. However, increased immigration can override the effect that increasing education levels have on advancing workforce skills. CONTRIBUTION This paper shows the extent to which Austria and Canada have adopted diametrically opposed strategies regarding the future development of their workforces. Assuming that

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of education and immigration on the size and skills of the future workforce

Vézina¹,

Bélanger²

2019

DemRes

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“…Our conclusions are based on the application of a new tool-the LSD-USA microsimulation model-to better understand the likely long-run implications of immigration policy scenarios for the skill levels of the future labor force populations in the United States. The LSD-USA model has many advantages over more traditional types of projection models (Bélanger et al 2019a). For example, it accounts for multiple socioeconomic, cultural, and demographic characteristics, including mother's educational attainment, in the computation of the probability of the occurrence of life course events and educational attainments.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Next, we describe the inputs we used to simulate the immigration scenarios for this paper. Detailed technical descriptions of the general model (Bélanger and Sabourin 2017; Lutz and Belanger 2017; Marois, Sabourin and Bélanger 2017) and its various applications (Bélanger et al 2019a) can be found elsewhere. A detailed description of the US version of the model is also available online (Bélanger et al 2019b).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We simulate these scenarios using a microsimulation model that was designed to provide prospective analyses of the socioeconomic and cultural consequences of population changes in high immigration countries (Bélanger et al 2019a). We originally developed the model for Canada (Laboratoire de simulation démographique-Canada, or LSD-C), and have since adapted it for the United States (LSD-USA) and the European Union.…”

Section: The Current Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Immigration Selection and the Educational Composition of the US Labor Force

Hook¹,

Bélanger²,

Sabourin³

et al. 2020

Population & Development Rev

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Immigration policy is often viewed as an important regulator of the flow of labor and human capital into the labor market. In the US context, this perspective underlies efforts to raise the educational levels of newly admitted US immigrants, which has been proposed through a variety of mechanisms. Yet it remains unclear whether and under what circumstances such changes would significantly raise the educational level of the US labor force. We use a microsimulation model to evaluate the effects of various policy proposals that would seek to admit more highly educated immigrants. Results suggest that adopting a Canadian-style admissions policy that explicitly selects immigrants based on educational attainment would lead to a better educated labor force, especially among immigrants and their descendants. Eliminating all unauthorized immigration or family reunification and diversity admission categories, however, would have minimal impact. Additionally, the effects of all policy scenarios on the educational composition of the entire labor force are likely to be modest and would be conditional on the continuation of intergenerational mobility and high levels of immigration.

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“…The Centre for Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM) aims to investigate the impacts of immigration on the future population in European Union. Full details of the architecture of CEPAM-Mic are available elsewhere 54 , 56 , 59 , 63 , 64 . In brief, CEPAM-MIC is a dynamic, continuous time, event-based, and spatial microsimulation projection model programed in the Modgen language, a microsimulation programming language developed by Statistics Canada, integrated into the Microsoft Visual Studio C + + environment.…”

Section: Building Athlos-mic Microsimulation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model

Marois

Aktaş

2021

Sci Rep

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The extent of the challenges and opportunities that population ageing presents depends heavily on the population’s health. Hence, for the development of appropriate strategies that enable countries to adopt the emerging demographic and epidemiological realities, information on future health trajectories of elderly population is a natural requirement. This study presents an innovative methodological framework for projecting the health of individuals using a dynamic microsimulation model that considers interactions between sociodemographic characteristics, health, mortality, bio-medical and behavioral risk factors. The model developed, called ATHLOS-Mic, is used to project the health of cohorts born before 1960 for the period 2015–2060 for selected European Countries using SHARE data to illustrate the possible effects of some selected risk factors and education on future health trajectories. Results show that, driven by a better educational attainment, each generation will be healthier than the previous one at same age. Also, we see that, on average, an individual of our base population will live about 18 more years since the start of the projection period, but only 5 years in good health. Finally, we find that a scenario that removes the effect of having a low level of education on individual health has the largest impact on the projected average health, the average number of years lived per person, and the average number of years lived in good health.

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A framework for the prospective analysis of ethno-cultural super-diversity

Cited by 19 publications

References 70 publications

Impacts of education and immigration on the size and skills of the future workforce

Impacts of education and immigration on the size and skills of the future workforce

Immigration Selection and the Educational Composition of the US Labor Force

Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model

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